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The northern region has entered the winter season, and with the movement of goods between north and south, supply pressure is gradually building up in the southern market. The long products market has been affected by seasonal factors, while the sheet metal market has shown gradual improvement amid a stabilizing manufacturing sector. However, sheet metal prices continue to rise. Downstream users are becoming more cautious, and it is expected that the domestic steel market will remain slightly volatile and consolidated in the short term.
According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center's weekly price forecast model, this week (November 19–23, 2012), the domestic steel market is expected to experience fluctuations. The long products market is likely to continue its downward trend, while the plate market will see mixed price movements. The Lange Steel Composite Index is projected to fluctuate around 149.3 points, with an average steel price of approximately 3,880 yuan per ton and a daily fluctuation range of about 20–30 yuan. The Lange Steel Long Products Index is expected to hover around 165.1 points, showing a slight decline of about 0.3 points. Meanwhile, the Lange Steel Plate Index is anticipated to stay near 130.7 points, with a small adjustment of roughly 0.7 points.
From the market survey conducted by the Lange Steel Information Research Center, it is expected that the long products market will continue to see price declines this week, while the plate market will experience mixed price movements. Raw material prices will vary: iron ore prices are expected to drop by about 10 yuan, coke prices may rise by 20–30 yuan, scrap prices could fall by 50 yuan, and billet prices may decrease slightly by 10–30 yuan.
In the 46th week of 2012 (November 12–16), the Lange Steel Composite Price Index (LGMI) reached 150.0 points, representing a 0.28% increase from the previous week and a 13.73% decrease compared to the same period last year. The long products index stood at 165.4 points, down 0.38% for the week and 16.77% lower than the same period last year. The sheet price index was 131.4 points, up 1.29% for the week but still 8.67% lower than the same time last year.
According to data on 17 categories of 44 standard steel varieties monitored by the Lange Steel Information Research Center, prices in the 46th week of 2012 showed slight fluctuations. Compared to the previous week, most prices remained stable or slightly declined, while flat products saw minor decreases and some varieties experienced sharper drops. Specifically, 14 products saw price increases, 3 decreased, 9 remained unchanged, and 21 fell, with an increase of 8 varieties in the falling category compared to the previous week. Iron ore prices remained stable, while coke prices rose by 30–70 yuan, scrap prices were mixed, and billet prices dropped by 40–80 yuan.
This week, the national steel inventory continued to decline, with the rate of reduction accelerating slightly. For the fifth consecutive week, the national steel social inventory decreased, with the decline in building materials and plate inventories speeding up. As of November 16, the total steel inventory in 29 key cities across the country was 11.6949 million tons, a decrease of 314,700 tons from the previous week. Wire rod inventory fell by 3.61%, rebar inventory by 1.91%, coil inventory by 1.06%, hot-rolled coil by 3.26%, cold-rolled coil by 1.54%, and plate inventory by 3.61%.
The steel market is experiencing consolidation this week, with rebars showing fluctuations but an overall upward trend in price. The closing price for the week was 3 points higher than the previous week, and the market remains in a slow recovery phase. The main contract volume this week was 1.003 million contracts, a decrease of 671.32 million lots. In terms of warehouse receipts, most outflows were empty.
Recent factors affecting steel prices include macroeconomic indicators such as industrial output growth and fixed asset investment. In October, the value-added of large-scale industrial enterprises increased by 9.6% year-on-year, with the manufacturing sector showing strong performance. Fixed asset investment from January to October grew by 20.7%, indicating continued economic activity. M2 money supply increased by 14.1% year-on-year, reflecting liquidity conditions in the economy.
Electricity consumption also showed signs of recovery, with a 6.1% year-on-year increase in October. Iron ore imports declined sharply in October, with a monthly decrease of 8.58 million tons and a year-on-year increase of 13%. The average import price of iron ore fell to $104.9/ton, down from $115.9/ton in September.
Steel exports in October saw a slight decline, while imports decreased significantly. Domestic production of crude steel and pig iron showed modest growth, supporting the overall market. Additionally, the EU initiated anti-dumping investigations into Chinese stainless steel pipe weldments, and the European Commission postponed an investigation into cold-rolled stainless steel seamless pipes.
Shandong Province launched a comprehensive emission reduction plan for the steel industry, aiming to reduce pollution and promote sustainable development. Meanwhile, real estate investment and automobile production and sales provided mixed signals, with real estate investment growing steadily and auto sales showing slight declines.
Finally, the Ministry of Finance announced the end of the "Home Appliances to the Countryside" policy, which had supported rural appliance purchases. This move reflects broader economic adjustments and shifts in government policy.
Overall, the steel market remains in a state of fluctuation and consolidation, influenced by both domestic and international factors. Investors and traders are closely monitoring these developments for potential opportunities and risks.
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