Market mentality actively stabilizes small fluctuations in steel prices

The domestic steel market has shown a positive and stable outlook, driven by the large-scale development of infrastructure projects under the National Development and Reform Commission. Despite some fluctuations, the overall market is expected to remain relatively stable in the short term. Market sentiment remains optimistic, supported by rising steel costs and increased demand from key sectors. According to the latest data from the Lange Steel Information Research Center, this week (December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013), steel prices are expected to experience only minor fluctuations. The long product market will see slight stability, while the plate market is likely to show a small upward trend. The Lange Steel Composite Index is projected to hover around 149.2 points, with an average steel price of approximately 3,880 yuan per ton and a volatility of about 30 yuan. The long product index is expected to be around 162.5, while the sheet price index is anticipated to rise slightly to 133.3 points. In terms of raw material prices, iron ore is expected to increase by about 10 yuan, coke by 10–20 yuan, and billet by 50 yuan. Scrap prices are expected to remain stable. This suggests that production costs are on the rise, which may further support steel prices in the coming weeks. Looking at historical data from the 52nd week of 2012 (December 24–28), the Lange Steel Composite Price Index reached 149.1 points, up 0.51% for the week but down 12.17% compared to the same period last year. The long product index stood at 162.5, a 0.37% weekly increase, while the sheet index rose to 133 points, up 0.70% for the week. These trends indicate a gradual recovery in the market. Steel inventories across the country have also seen a moderate rebound. As of December 28, total steel stocks in 29 major cities reached 11.7694 million tons, up 19,900 tons from the previous week. Rebar stocks increased by 1.73%, while hot-rolled coil stocks declined slightly. This suggests a balanced supply-demand situation, with some pressure on certain product types. The steel futures market also showed signs of strength, with rebar prices rising for four consecutive weeks. However, trading volumes decreased slightly, possibly due to seasonal factors ahead of the Chinese New Year. While the price movement is positive, concerns remain about its sustainability in the longer term. On the macroeconomic front, the National Development and Reform Commission approved several new infrastructure projects, including urban rail transit in Changsha and port expansions in Fujian. These developments are expected to boost demand for steel in the coming years. Meanwhile, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced continued strict housing policies, aiming to curb speculative demand and support genuine homebuyers. Industrial profits in November saw a 3% year-on-year increase, with some sectors like electricity and heat production showing strong growth. However, the steel industry continues to face challenges, with many companies reporting losses. Despite this, companies like Wuhan Iron and Steel (WISCO) have managed to maintain profitability through high-end products and non-steel ventures. Internationally, U.S. authorities imposed a 172.54% dumping margin on Chinese steel pipes, signaling ongoing trade tensions. Domestically, crude steel output declined slightly in mid-December, reflecting cautious production strategies amid uncertain demand. Overall, the steel market is showing signs of stabilization, with modest price increases and improved investor confidence. While challenges remain, the outlook for the near future appears cautiously optimistic.

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