Market mentality actively stabilizes small fluctuations in steel prices

The domestic steel market has experienced a period of moderate growth, driven by large-scale infrastructure projects supported by the National Development and Reform Commission. Despite this, the market remains stable, with steel prices showing only slight fluctuations. Positive sentiment and strong cost support are contributing to a steady market environment, though short-term volatility is still expected. According to the Lange Steel Information Research Center’s weekly price forecast model, prices for domestic steel products are projected to fluctuate slightly this week (December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013). The long product market is expected to remain stable, while plate prices may see a slight increase. The Lange Steel Composite Index is anticipated to hover around 149.2 points, with an average steel price of approximately 3,880 yuan per ton and a volatility range of about 30 yuan. The long product index is expected to be around 162.5, and the sheet price index is projected to rise slightly to around 133.3 points. Market research from the Lange Steel Information Research Center also suggests that long product prices will likely remain stable or see minor increases, while plate prices are expected to rise steadily. Raw material prices, including iron ore and coke, are expected to increase slightly, with iron ore up by 10 yuan and coke up by 10–20 yuan. Scrap prices will stay flat, while billet prices are expected to rise by 50 yuan. In the 52nd week of 2012 (December 24–28), the Lange Steel Composite Price Index reached 149.1 points, reflecting a 0.51% increase compared to the previous week and a 12.17% drop from the same period last year. The long product index was at 162.5 points, up 0.37% weekly but down 15.90% year-on-year. The sheet price index stood at 133 points, rising 0.70% on the week but falling 6.05% from the same time last year. Data from the Lange Steel Information Research Center indicates that in the 52nd week, most major steel products saw small price increases, with 33 out of 44 monitored specifications rising. Seven remained stable, and four saw slight declines. Iron ore prices rose by 20–30 yuan, coke by 10–20 yuan, scrap by 50 yuan, and billets by 30 yuan. Steel inventories across the country increased moderately during the week, with building materials stockpiles rising and sheet stocks declining slightly. On December 28, total steel inventory in 29 key cities reached 11.7694 million tons, up 19,900 tons from the previous week. Wire rod inventory increased by 0.82%, rebar by 1.73%, and coil screw by 3.39%, while hot-rolled coils decreased by 1.82%. Rebar prices continued their upward trend, rising for four consecutive weeks. The main contract volume dropped by 192,000 lots, but prices still climbed. This week’s price increase coincided with a reduction in trading volumes, possibly due to holiday-related fund outflows. However, concerns remain about the sustainability of the upward trend. Macroeconomic factors continue to influence the steel market. The National Development and Reform Commission announced five new infrastructure projects, including urban rail transit development in Changsha and port expansions in Quanzhou. These projects are expected to boost demand for steel in the coming years. The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development emphasized continued strict housing policies to curb speculative demand. In November, industrial enterprises above designated size reported a 3% year-on-year profit increase, with some sectors like electricity and heat production seeing significant gains. Wuhan Iron and Steel Group (WISCO) achieved sales revenue exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2012, with profits reaching 1.7 billion yuan. The company expanded into high-end markets, supplying auto panels to Shanghai Volkswagen and winning bids for major infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, U.S. authorities issued a final ruling on anti-dumping measures against Chinese steel pipes, imposing dumping margins as high as 172.54%. This could affect export volumes. Domestic crude steel output declined slightly in mid-December, with major producers reporting a 1.75% drop in daily output. Meanwhile, the rebar main contract on the 28th rose 0.46%, closing at 3,916 yuan per ton. Downstream demand, particularly in machinery, showed mixed results. While some sectors like corn harvesting equipment and gas turbines saw sharp growth, others such as feed-producing equipment and transformers experienced significant declines.

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