Wait-and-see mood is getting stronger

The northern region has entered the winter season, and the movement of goods between north and south has started to increase supply pressure in the southern market. The long products market has been impacted by seasonal factors, while the sheet metal market has gradually improved as the manufacturing industry stabilizes. However, the price of sheet metal continues to rise, and downstream users are showing a stronger wait-and-see attitude. It is expected that the domestic steel market will remain slightly fluctuating and consolidating in the short term. According to the weekly price forecast model from the Lange Steel Information Research Center, this week (2012.11.19–11.23) the domestic steel market is expected to experience fluctuations. The long products market will continue to decline, while the plate market will see both increases and decreases. The Lange Steel Composite Index is projected to fluctuate around 149.3 points, with an average steel price of approximately 3,880 yuan and a daily fluctuation of about 20–30 yuan. The Lange Steel Long Product Index is expected to hover around 165.1 points, falling slightly by about 0.3 points, while the Lange Steel Plate Index is expected to be around 130.7 points, adjusting slightly by about 0.7 points. From the market survey conducted by the Lange Steel Information Research Center, it is expected that the domestic long products market will continue to see price declines, while the plate market will show mixed trends. Raw material prices will vary: iron ore prices are expected to steadily decrease by 10 yuan, coke prices will rise slightly by 20–30 yuan, scrap prices will fall by 50 yuan, and billet prices will decline slightly by 10–30 yuan. In the 46th week of 2012 (11.12–11.16), the Lange Steel (LGMI) Composite Price Index reached 150.0 points, representing a 0.28% increase on a weekly basis and a 13.73% decrease compared to the same period last year. The LGMI Long Products Price Index was at 165.4 points, down 0.38% for the week and 16.77% lower than the same period last year. The LGMI Sheet Price Index stood at 131.4 points, up 1.29% for the week but down 8.67% year-on-year. Based on data from 17 categories of 44 standard steel varieties monitored by the Lange Steel Information Research Center, the prices of main steel products in the 46th week of 2012 fluctuated slightly. Compared to the previous week, prices rose slightly, with flat varieties decreasing slightly and falling varieties increasing significantly. Of these, 14 varieties saw price increases, 3 decreased; 9 remained flat, 5 declined; and 21 fell, with 8 more than the previous week. Iron ore prices remained stable, coke prices increased by 30–70 yuan, scrap prices were mixed, and billet prices dropped by 40–80 yuan. This week, the national steel society stock declined slightly, continuing for the fifth consecutive week. Building materials inventory declined rapidly, and the rate of plate inventory reduction accelerated slightly. According to market monitoring by the Lange Steel Information Research Center, on November 16, the total steel inventory in 29 key cities nationwide was 11.6949 million tons, down 314,700 tons from the previous week. Wire rod inventory was 968,100 tons, down 3.61% from the previous week. Rebar inventory was 4,436,000 tons, down 1.91%, and coil inventory was 261,700 tons, down 1.06%. Hot rolled coil inventory was 3.3342 million tons, down 3.26%, cold rolled coil inventory was 1.5615 million tons, down 1.54%, and plate inventory was 1,955,500 tons, down 3.61%. This week, the steel market experienced consolidation, with the rebar market showing slight fluctuations but an overall upward trend. The closing price was 3 yuan higher than the previous week, and the market remained in a slow rising phase. The main contract volume was 1.003 million contracts, down 671.32 million lots. Most warehouse receipts were being withdrawn, with most outflows being empty. Recent factors affecting steel prices include macroeconomic indicators such as a 9.6% year-on-year increase in industrial output above designated size in October, a 20.7% increase in fixed asset investment from January to October, and a 14.1% year-on-year growth in M2 money supply. Electricity consumption also showed a significant rebound, with a 6.1% year-on-year increase in October. On the raw material side, iron ore imports fell sharply, and steel exports decreased slightly. Industry news includes an EU anti-dumping investigation into stainless steel pipe weldments from China, a postponement of an anti-dumping investigation on cold-rolled stainless steel pipes, and Shandong Province launching comprehensive emission reductions for the steel industry. Downstream demand remains strong, with real estate investment increasing by 15.4% year-on-year and auto production and sales showing slight declines. The Ministry of Finance announced the end of the "Home Appliances to the Countryside" policy, which had provided financial subsidies for rural appliance purchases. This policy ended as scheduled on January 31, 2013.

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