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The domestic steel market has experienced a period of rapid growth, driven by the large-scale development of infrastructure projects approved by the National Development and Reform Commission. Despite this, the market remains positive and stable, supported by rising production costs and strong investor sentiment. As a result, the overall steel market is expected to see only minor fluctuations in the short term.
According to the latest data from the Lange Steel Information Research Center, prices for domestic steel products are projected to remain relatively stable this week (December 31, 2012 – January 4, 2013). The long product market is expected to show slight fluctuations, while the plate market is likely to experience a small upward trend. The Lange Steel Composite Index is anticipated to hover around 149.2 points, with an average steel price of approximately 3,880 yuan per ton. The long product index is expected to fluctuate around 162.5, and the sheet price index around 133.3, with a slight increase of about 0.3 points.
Market research also indicates that long product prices will likely remain steady or rise slightly, while plate prices are expected to follow a similar trend. Raw material prices, including iron ore and coke, are forecasted to increase slightly, with iron ore up by about 10 yuan and coke by 10–20 yuan. Scrap prices are expected to remain stable, while billet prices may rise by 50 yuan.
In the 52nd week of 2012 (December 24–28), the Lange Steel Composite Price Index reached 149.1 points, marking a weekly increase of 0.51% and a year-on-year decline of 12.17%. The long product index was at 162.5, up 0.37% on the week but down 15.90% compared to the same period last year. The sheet price index stood at 133 points, up 0.70% weekly and 6.05% lower than the previous year.
Looking at the broader market, steel prices saw a modest increase during the 52nd week, with most major products experiencing a slight upward trend. Out of 44 monitored specifications across 17 categories, 33 products saw price increases, while only four declined. Raw material prices also rose, with iron ore up 20–30 yuan, coke up 10–20 yuan, scrap up 50 yuan, and billets up 30 yuan.
Steel inventories across the country have seen a moderate rebound. As of December 28, total steel stockpiles in 29 key cities reached 11.7694 million tons, up 19,900 tons from the previous week. Wire rod stocks increased by 0.82%, rebar by 1.73%, and coiled screw by 3.39%. However, hot-rolled coil and cold-rolled coil stocks decreased slightly, while plate inventories fell by 1.71%.
On the futures market, rebar prices continued their upward trend, closing at 3,916 yuan/ton on December 28, up 18 yuan from the previous trading day. The main contract for rebar (1305) saw a 0.46% increase, with trading volume reaching 1.98 million contracts and open interest declining slightly.
Macroeconomic factors continue to influence the steel sector. The National Development and Reform Commission approved five new infrastructure projects, including urban rail transit developments in Changsha and port expansions in Quanzhou. These projects are expected to drive demand for construction materials in the coming years.
The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced continued strict housing policies to curb speculative demand and support genuine homebuyers. Meanwhile, industrial profits in November showed a modest increase, with a 3% year-on-year rise in profits for enterprises above designated size.
Wuhan Iron and Steel Group (WISCO) reported sales revenue exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2012, with a profit of 1.7 billion yuan. The company has focused on high-end products and expanded into international markets, contributing to its resilience amid industry-wide losses.
Globally, the U.S. Department of Commerce issued a final ruling in a long-standing anti-dumping case against Chinese steel pipe producers, setting dumping margins as high as 172.54%. This could impact export volumes and pricing.
Domestic crude steel output declined slightly in mid-December, reflecting reduced demand from downstream sectors such as machinery and construction. Machinery industry production and sales growth slowed, with some key products showing sharp declines in output.
Overall, the steel market remains in a delicate balance between supply, demand, and external pressures. While short-term fluctuations are expected, long-term stability depends on continued infrastructure investment and economic recovery.
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