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The domestic steel market has experienced a period of steady growth, driven by the large-scale infrastructure projects initiated by the National Development and Reform Commission. Despite this, the market remains in a balanced state, supported by rising costs and positive sentiment. In the short term, steel prices are expected to fluctuate slightly, with long products showing stable movement and plate prices trending upward.
According to the latest weekly price forecast from the Lange Steel Information Research Center, the overall steel market is projected to remain relatively stable during the week of December 31, 2012, to January 4, 2013. The Lange Steel Composite Index is anticipated to hover around 149.2 points, with an average steel price of approximately 3,880 yuan per ton and a volatility range of about 30 yuan. The long product index is expected to stay near 162.5, while the sheet price index should rise slightly to around 133.3 points.
In terms of raw material prices, iron ore is likely to increase by 10 yuan, coke by 10–20 yuan, and billet by 50 yuan, while scrap prices are expected to remain stable. This reflects a slight upward trend in the cost structure, which is supporting steel prices.
Looking at historical data, the Lange Steel Composite Price Index for the 52nd week of 2012 (December 24–28) reached 149.1 points, marking a 0.51% increase from the previous week and a 12.17% drop compared to the same period last year. The long product index was 162.5, up 0.37%, while the sheet index stood at 133 points, a 0.70% increase but still down 6.05% year-on-year.
Market monitoring also shows that steel prices rose slightly in the 52nd week, with 33 out of 44 monitored products increasing in price, five remaining stable, and four decreasing. The raw material market followed a similar pattern, with iron ore and coke prices rising, and billet seeing a modest increase.
Steel inventories across the country saw a moderate rebound, with total stocks in 29 key cities reaching 11.7694 million tons on December 28. Wire rod, rebar, and coiled screw stocks increased, while hot-rolled and cold-rolled coil inventories declined slightly.
The rebar market showed continued upward momentum, with prices rising for four consecutive weeks. However, trading volumes decreased, possibly due to seasonal liquidity pressures ahead of the Lunar New Year. This raises concerns about the sustainability of the current price trend.
On the macroeconomic front, the National Development and Reform Commission approved several new infrastructure projects, including urban rail transit developments in Changsha and port expansions in Quanzhou. These projects are expected to boost demand for steel in the coming years.
Meanwhile, the Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced continued strict housing policies aimed at curbing speculative demand. Industrial profits in November rose by 3% year-on-year, with some sectors like electricity and heat production showing strong gains, while others, such as ferrous metal smelting, faced losses.
Wuhan Iron and Steel Group reported sales revenue exceeding 200 billion yuan in 2012, with profits reaching 1.7 billion. The company expanded into high-end markets, supplying auto panels to major OEMs and winning bids for major infrastructure projects.
Globally, the U.S. issued a final anti-dumping ruling against Chinese steel pipes, with dumping margins reaching up to 172.54%. Domestically, crude steel output declined slightly in mid-December, reflecting cautious supply management.
Overall, the steel market remains in a delicate balance between demand support and cost pressures, with ongoing monitoring needed to assess future trends.
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