The largest decline in the 2018 PV industry chain is over 50%. The lowest price in April or 2019.

Like other semiconductor industries, the price of the photovoltaic industry following Moore's Law has rapidly declined as efficiency has increased. In the past 2018, the domestic PV market has shrunk due to policy changes, and the industrial chain price curve has also stepped out of the path of “all the way down”.

In 2019, before many policies such as on-grid tariffs and annual subsidy scales are unclear, the PV prospects still seem to be bleak. The industry analysts may have an overall situation of “cold and hot”. The April estimate is the annual low price. . However, news about the new year's electricity price policy is beginning to emerge. If the new regulations are changed to quarterly or half-yearly, the price curve in 2019 will regenerate.

The biggest drop in 2018 is over 50%

Time reverted back to 2018, after the traditional off-season in the first quarter, the domestic PV market did not wait for the expected peak season, but it was the “531” new policy that suddenly came, subsidies lowered, ground PV power plant indicators stopped, distributed photovoltaic The indicator bag is closed. Under the market shocks, demand has almost stagnated, and industrial chain prices have fallen across the board.

        According to the statistics of Polaris solar photovoltaic network, in the past 2018, polysilicon decreased by 30%; polycrystalline silicon wafers and monocrystalline silicon wafers decreased by 54.1% and 41.9%, respectively; polycrystalline silicon wafers and single crystal cells decreased by 44.3%, respectively. 41.8%; the reduction of polycrystalline modules and single crystal modules was 29.8% and 27.8%, respectively.

(Source: PVInfoLinkEnergytrend)

It is not difficult to see from the above figure that since the fourth quarter, the prices of various links in the industrial chain have stabilized, and the price of monocrystalline battery has even rebounded slightly. This is mainly due to the demand for grid-connected machines before the end of the domestic market and the stocking of goods in overseas markets. According to data from the State Grid Energy Research Institute, from October to December last year, PV installed capacity reached 7.92GW.

As far as the domestic PV market is concerned in the second half of 2018, the “heavy play” of new installed capacity is undoubtedly the application leader project of up to 5GW. Affected by this demand, the ultra-efficient single-crystal PERC cell sheet (21.5+) that meets the technical demand in the market is difficult to find on one side and double-sided battery, and the price has risen against the trend.

2019 "The first half of the year is idle, and the second half is busy?"

Looking forward to the price trend in 2019, in January, at the end of last year, supported by the demand for grid connection of domestic deferred projects and overseas demand, the price will remain stable and will continue until the Lunar New Year.

After the Spring Festival, industry insiders judged that due to the delay in subsidy scale and electricity price policy, domestic market demand may not be optimistic. The analysis of the personnel of a certain line of PV enterprises is constrained by the infinite expansion of subsidy loopholes. The scale of subsidies in 2019 may be the same as that in 2018, but it is even worse, except for the 1.5 GW technology leader project, the fourth batch of forward-thinking projects in the expectation has been confirmed. Unable to contribute to this year's installed capacity, its grid timeline will be pushed to 2020. In addition, the international market installed season is mostly in the second half of the year. Overall, the PV market in 2019 may be in a state of “successful in the first half of the year and busy in the second half”.

Consulting analysts hold the same view. PVInfoLink chief analyst Lin Yurong said at the industry conference that in addition to the 1.5GW technology leader project, the rest of the domestic projects will not be equipped with 630. The domestic demand will return to the second half of the season, and the traditional peak season in Europe and the United States will also fall in the second half. In 2019, it showed a trend of cold and hot. She pointed out that after the Lunar New Year, the production capacity of each link continued to be released, and the oversupply situation was serious. The overall supply chain price may fall again. Considering the time when demand will start to pull in the second half of the year, the April 2019 estimate is the annual price low.

However, with the news of the 2019 feed-in tariff policy, the annual trend of “hot and cold” has also been marked by a big question mark. It is reported that in the 2019 electricity price new policy, the on-grid electricity price of the ground-based photovoltaic power station and the industrial and commercial distributed photovoltaic subsidies will be lowered quarter by quarter. The resulting surge in rushing and the rising market demand will become a strong support for the strong industrial chain price.

Of course, the specific deterrent effect of the new electricity price policy on the market must wait for the 2019 subsidy scale policy to be settled. If the scale is limited, the market will only be able to "sigh" with the new electricity price.

Unique in China, can be used as wall decoration; table and chair covering; old Renovation or beautification of door panels, cabinets, wardrobes, stairs, etc.
Specifications: 2750 * 880 * 1.8 * 0.7mm

(Length * Width * Total floor thickness * Wear layer thickness)

Covering Material

Covering Material,Wall Decoration Material,Furniture Covering Renovation,Multipurpose Coating Material

Liaoning Schnell Interior Products Co., Ltd , https://www.schnellflooring.com