The decline in the profit growth rate of industrial enterprises in the first two months has a reason

On March 27th, the National Bureau of Statistics released the benefit data of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months of 2019. Data show that from January to February, the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size reached 708.01 billion yuan, down 14.0% year-on-year. Last year, the total profit growth of industrial enterprises above designated size was 10.3% year-on-year.

Combined with the data of major economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics not long ago, China's economic operation remained in a reasonable range in the first two months. Under the situation that the macro economy continues to be stable and stable, and the growth rate of industrial enterprises above designated size has fallen sharply? Economic Daily·China Economic Net reporter interviewed relevant department heads and experts.

The influence of multiple factors such as the Spring Festival

In the first two months, among the industrial enterprises above designated size, the total profit of state-owned holding enterprises decreased by 24.2% year-on-year; the total profit of joint-stock enterprises decreased by 13.5%; the total profit of foreign-invested enterprises of Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan decreased by 14.5%; private enterprises Total profit realized decreased by 5.8% year-on-year.

In terms of industry categories, in the 41 major industrial sectors, the total profit of 20 industries increased year-on-year, one industry was flat, and 20 industries decreased year-on-year.

“The decline in profit of some key industries and the Spring Festival holiday factor are the main reasons for the decline in industrial profits.” Zhu Hong, senior statistician of the Industry Department of the National Bureau of Statistics, said that in the first two months of this year, major industries such as automobile, petroleum processing, steel and chemicals. The profit dropped significantly.

Zhu Hong said that according to calculations, after deducting four industries such as automobile, petroleum processing, steel and chemical industry, the industrial profits above designated size increased by 0.2% in the first two months.

In fact, compared with the previous year, this year's Spring Festival holiday factor has a longer impact on the production and operation of industrial enterprises, and objectively brings about a significant impact on the production and operation of enterprises.

"The influence of the Spring Festival on people's production and life is not limited to the 7-day long vacation." Mao Shengyong, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that from experience, about 4 days to 5 days before the Spring Festival and about 15 days to 20 days after the Spring Festival. It has a certain impact on people's production and life behavior. Spring Festival sometimes in January, sometimes in February, the Spring Festival time changes will bring some disturbances to the year-on-year and month-on-month growth of some economic indicators in January and February, and sometimes even the indicators for March will be brought To influence, this phenomenon is called "the influence of the Spring Festival holiday movement" or "Spring Festival factor."

Mao Shengyong said that from the industrial point of view, four days before the Spring Festival and about 15 days to 20 days after the Spring Festival will have a certain impact on the company's production and operation activities. This year's Spring Festival is February 5, February 5 is 4 days in February, and 15 days to 20 days after February 5 is also concentrated in February, so the impact of the Spring Festival on industrial production is reflected in February.

In the first two months of this year, the added value of industrial enterprises above designated size increased by 5.3% year-on-year, and the growth rate dropped by 0.4 percentage points from December 2018. Industrial enterprises above designated size achieved operating income of 14.8 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 3.3%, and the growth rate was also significantly slower than last year. The year-on-year growth rates of industrial production and sales both at the supply and demand sides have slowed slightly, which has affected the profit growth of enterprises to a certain extent.

It is not advisable to compare data published in the same period last year

It is worth noting that the data released by the National Bureau of Statistics on March 27, 2018 showed that the total profits of industrial enterprises above designated size in the first two months reached 968.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.1%.

However, in the first two months of this year, industrial enterprises above designated size achieved a total profit of 708.01 billion yuan. Why did the year-on-year decline be 14.0%, instead of 26.9% calculated by netizens?

In fact, the growth rate of indicators such as total profit and operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size is calculated on a comparable basis. There is an incomparable factor between the data in the reporting period and the same indicator data published in the previous year, which cannot be directly compared with the calculation growth rate.

On the one hand, according to the statistical system, the statistical department regularly adjusts the scope of investigation of industrial enterprises above designated size every year. In other words, the statistical sample database of industrial enterprises above designated size is not static, but is in a dynamic state. Every year, some enterprises have reached the scale of the survey, and some enterprises have withdrawn from the survey due to the smaller scale. There are also changes in new production enterprises, bankruptcies, and injections.

For example, some companies used to be in the sample library in the past, but the main business income of the previous year exceeded 20 million yuan, and the next year will be included in the statistics.

After the implementation of the “reform of the camp” policy, the service industry enterprises changed their value-added tax and the tax rate was lower. The industrial enterprises gradually divested the internal non-industrial production and operation activities and turned to the service industry, which also reduced the financial data of industrial enterprises. In this part of industrial enterprises, some may face the elimination from the above-scale enterprises, and some need to deduct the profit data of last year.

It can be seen that the number of industrial enterprises above the scale of different time nodes is different. For example, in 2016, there were 379,000, in 2017, 385,000, and at the end of 2018, 378,000.

On the other hand, in order to further strengthen data quality management, the National Bureau of Statistics is also constantly strengthening statistical enforcement, and clearing the enterprises found in the statistical law enforcement inspection that do not meet the industrial statistics requirements above the scale, and correcting the relevant base. At the same time, since the fourth quarter of 2017, the statistics department has also paid attention to the cross-regional and cross-industry double counting of enterprise groups (companies). In addition, according to the results of the comprehensive inventory of the fourth national economic census unit, the survey units of industrial enterprises above designated size were verified and adjusted. These factors will have an impact on the statistics.

For this reason, to calculate the "proportional growth rate", you can't simply compare this year's statistics with the statistics released last year, but instead compare this year's sample data with the previous year's sample. Comparison.

Operating income indicator adjustment has little effect

In this industrial benefit data release, the National Bureau of Statistics adjusted individual indicators. For example, unpublish collective enterprise data and replace “main business income” with “operating income”.

The reporter learned that the collective enterprise data released in the past refers to enterprises whose registration type is “collective”. With the establishment of the modern enterprise system, the proportion of enterprises registered as “collective” has been declining (in 2018, the operating income of collective enterprises accounted for only 0.18% of all industrial enterprises above designated size), so the release of collective enterprise data will be lifted from 2019 onwards. .

Replacing the "main business income" with "operating income" has little effect, does not hinder the use of data, and is not to adjust the statistical caliber to make the data "good-looking".

For many years, China's industrial statistics have consistently used the “main business income” to reflect the scale of business operations and business conditions. With the diversification of business operations and the continuous reform of the accounting system, it is imperative to adjust the total amount of indicators reflecting the scale of business operations in a timely manner.

From 2019 onwards, the National Bureau of Statistics will adjust the “main business income” to “operating income” to fully reflect the scale and operation status of industrial enterprises. Corresponding to this, the “main business cost” is adjusted to “operating cost”; a series of indicators derived from “main business income” and “main business cost”, such as “main business income profit rate” “every hundred The indicators such as the “cost in the main business income” have also been adjusted accordingly.

The reporter learned that according to the accounting standards of enterprises, “operating income” reflects the income realized by all business operations of the enterprise, and “main business income” is one of them. “Main business” refers to the business scope stipulated by the business license. As the business activities of enterprises become more diversified, the main business of industrial enterprises is no longer limited to industrial activities, and the “main business income” cannot accurately reflect the scale of industrial business activities.

In the “Notice on Revising the Format of Financial Statements for General Enterprises” issued by the Ministry of Finance, there are no “main business income” items in the financial statements of enterprises. The use of “operating income” indicators is in line with the reform direction of the accounting system, making it easier for companies to understand and report, and reduce the burden on the grassroots.

At present, the financial statistics and publications of the Ministry of Finance, SASAC and other departments have used the "operating income" indicators to reflect the scale of operations. From the data situation in recent years, the absolute difference between "operating income" and "main business income" is basically stable.

The data show that from 2013 to 2018, the difference between the growth rate of main business income and operating income of industrial enterprises above designated size is about 0.1 percentage point. Since 2018, the “operating income” indicator has been released simultaneously in the monthly report on industrial economic benefits. In 2018, the total gap between the two is 2.6%, and the growth gap is 0.1 percentage points.

As a new heating solution, Far Infrared Heaters has many advantages compared to traditional heating methods like air pump, gas or oil. It is clean and has a surprisingly high conversion rate which can up to 98% in theory. Farther more, the far infrared itself is benefit for our bodies and well-being. It is easy for installation and need no maintenance at all. 

Wall Mounted Carbon Crystal Heater

Wall Mounted Carbon Crystal Heater,Far Infrared Wall Mounted Heaters,Carbon Crystal Electric Heater,Wall Mount Carbon Crystal Infrared Heater

Shandong Dexiang Electrical Technology Co.,Ltd , https://www.heater-kerosene.com