Supply and demand tend to balance coal prices or will enter a plateau

In early November, the port of Bohai Sea was closed for a long time due to windy and foggy weather, causing a backlog of ships in the port. In the near future, the closure of the airline was lifted, and the number of vessels handled by the port office increased. The shipment status of the shipping industry improved for a short time. The momentum of the lowering of the thermal coal price in the Bohai Rim further contracted.

On the afternoon of November 18th, the Bohai Bohai Thermal Coal Price Index showed that the comprehensive average price of thermal coal of 5,500 kcal was reported at 375 yuan/ton, which was a month-on-month decrease of 1 yuan/ton, and it continued to refresh the lowest record since its release. Since mid-September, the Bohai Bay thermal coal price index has fallen for ten consecutive weeks.

Qinhuangdao Port's coal prices in this period were all flat. Qinhuangdao Port 4500 calories thermal coal price is 300-310 yuan / ton, 5,000 calories thermal coal price is 325-335 yuan / ton, 5500 calories thermal coal price is 365-375 yuan / ton, 5800 kcal thermal coal price is 415-425 yuan / ton.

Judging from the quantity of specifications, during the reporting period, the prices of 24 port specification products were all flat, indicating that the supply and demand relationship in the thermal coal market in the region tends to be balanced; since June 17th, the price index has not risen until this reporting period. During the record period, the cumulative decrease of 43 yuan / ton.

Li Xuegang, a senior analyst in the coal industry, believes that the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim region has undergone an overall downward exploration for half a year and has experienced deep declines. It has finally been confirmed by large-scale coal companies in the context of the peak winter coal consumption. In November, the coal sales price maintained its policy unchanged in October, and it was reported that the news of coal prices will no longer be lowered during the year. It again showed a relatively stable operation. However, as the calculation result touched on the critical point of price index adjustment, the price index of this period continued to decline slightly.

Although entering the winter heating period, due to the economic downturn, coal demand has been in a depressed state. At the same time, coal shipments and port stocks are relatively higher than the market demand. The major power companies have enough coal to cope with the consumption, and the coal price increase is basically not. There are support factors.

Data show that from January to October, China's total coal output was 3.045 billion tons, a year-on-year decrease of 114 million tons, a decrease of 3.6%. As of the end of October, the total social deposits of coal have exceeded 300 million tons in 46 months. At the same time, financial data of Qinhuangdao Coal Network shows that on November 18th, the total energy deposits of the six major power groups in the coastal area were 12,611,000 tons, and the available days for coal deposits were more than 25 days. Among them, the electricity available at the electricity and the YUDEAN coal deposits were all available at 30. Days or more.

From the above data, it can be seen that although the national coal production contracted after the production capacity was deterred in the past two years, the coal consumption also decreased at the same time (in the first 10 months, the national coal consumption was about 3.23 billion tons, a decrease of 160 million tons year-on-year, down 4.7. %)) Coal inventories at all levels remained at a high level, leading to a fundamental reversal in the situation of overcapacity.

In the short term, the contradiction between the supply and demand of coal in northern ports has recently eased. Under the premise of coal prices, the possibility of a drop in coal prices has been reduced by supply and demand and artificially, and coastal coal prices may enter a short-term stable period.