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In the month of June, China's crude steel output reached 64.66 million tons, marking a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. Meanwhile, international oil prices continued to climb, and the 19th refined oil price adjustment window was expected to see the largest increase since early July. In Hebei province, efforts to address industrial pollution have intensified, leading to reduced or halted operations at several small and medium-sized concentrators in Yusancheng.
**Hot Spot Guide**
- **GDP Growth**: The gross domestic product (GDP) for the first half of the year totaled 24.89 trillion yuan, representing a 7.6% year-on-year increase. This includes a 7.7% growth in the first quarter and 7.5% in the second quarter. The primary industry saw a 3.0% rise, while the secondary industry grew by 7.6%, and the tertiary sector increased by 8.3%. On a quarterly basis, GDP expanded by 1.7% in the second quarter.
- **Steel Production Trends**: Despite seasonal demand fluctuations, China’s daily crude steel output remained high, with an average of 2.155 million tons per day in June, down slightly from the previous month. However, this figure still reflects historical highs. From January to June, total crude steel output amounted to 389.87 million tons, up 7.4% compared to the same period last year. Analysts believe that with ongoing policy support and potential stimulus measures, economic stability is likely, though challenges persist.
- **Oil Price Outlook**: International oil prices surged, with New York WTI rising over 9.7% and Brent crude increasing by 6.5% from the end of June. Analysts predict that the upcoming oil price adjustment could result in an increase of around 200–350 yuan per ton, reflecting growing global demand and geopolitical tensions.
- **Environmental Regulations in Hebei**: Increased environmental enforcement has led to production cuts in key industries such as steel, cement, and coking in Tangshan. Despite these measures, many companies are still operating at high capacity, raising concerns about the effectiveness of pollution control efforts.
- **Impact on Mining Sector**: Sluggish steel demand has affected mining operations, with small and medium concentrators reducing output by over one-third. Some companies have seen declines in net profits despite revenue increases, highlighting the financial strain on the sector.
**Summary**
On July 15, U.S. stock indices closed mixed, with the Dow Jones up 0.13%, the Nasdaq up 0.21%, and the S&P 500 up 0.14%. Crude oil prices rose slightly, while gold prices also edged higher. The U.S. dollar index gained modestly, and copper prices on the London Metal Exchange fell slightly.
**Market Analysis**
The Chinese market opened higher on July 15, fluctuating around the 3,660 level before closing slightly up. Technical indicators showed some weakening, but overall sentiment remained stable. Traders are closely watching key support and resistance levels, with expectations of continued volatility during the upcoming period.
**Steel Market Dynamics**
- **Iron Ore**: The iron ore market remained stable, with prices showing minor gains. Domestic and imported ore prices varied by region, with traders cautiously assessing market conditions.
- **Billet Prices**: The Tangshan billet market saw weak trading activity, with prices remaining largely unchanged. Downstream buyers were cautious, leading to limited transaction volumes.
- **Coke Market**: Coke prices remained relatively stable, with slight variations across regions. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term, despite some positive sentiment from strong steel demand.
- **Building Materials**: Prices for rebar in major cities like Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou remained stable, with only minor fluctuations observed.
- **Sheet Prices**: Hot-rolled sheet prices in Shanghai, Tianjin, and Lecong saw slight increases, reflecting improved market confidence.
**Today’s Forecast**
Building materials markets are expected to remain stable, supported by urbanization trends and government-backed initiatives. However, seasonal demand weakness and inventory pressures may limit further price gains. Plate markets are seeing upward momentum, with price increases across multiple regions, although downstream demand remains subdued.
Overall, the steel market is navigating a mix of supportive policies and underlying economic headwinds, with a cautious outlook for the near future.
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