In this week’s steel market update, China's crude steel production in June reached 64.66 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.6%. The daily average output for the month was 2.155 million tons, marking a slight decrease of 0.3% from the previous month. This is the second consecutive month of decline, but it still remains at historically high levels. From January to June, total crude steel output climbed to 389.87 million tons, up 7.4% compared to the same period last year.
Economic data released this week showed that China’s GDP grew by 7.6% year-on-year in the first half of the year, with the second quarter recording a growth rate of 7.5%. While this meets the annual target of 7.5%, the economy continues to face downward pressure, especially in the second half of the year. However, government measures such as urban renewal projects and efforts to boost information consumption are expected to support growth and reduce the risk of economic stagnation.
The steel market remains under pressure due to weak demand and excess capacity. Despite this, prices have shown signs of stabilization, with some analysts predicting a potential rebound in the coming months. In August, Baosteel’s benchmark steel price remained flat, while building material prices in the Shahe River region saw an increase of 80–120 yuan per ton. Fubao Information noted that with falling steel inventories, the half-year decline in prices may be ending, suggesting a consolidation phase ahead.
Internationally, oil prices continued to rise, driven by geopolitical tensions and strong economic data from developed nations. The 19th refined oil price adjustment window is expected to see the largest increase since early July, with estimates ranging between 200 to 350 yuan per ton. This has raised concerns about rising energy costs and their impact on industrial sectors, including steel.
In Hebei province, pollution control efforts have intensified, leading to production cuts in several steel and cement plants. Tangshan’s steel enterprises were issued guidelines to limit production during heavy pollution days, which could further affect supply. Meanwhile, Yusancheng mineral concentrators have reduced or halted operations due to sluggish steel demand, impacting local mining companies.
Looking at the global markets, the Dow Jones closed slightly higher on July 15, while the Nasdaq and S&P 500 also posted modest gains. Crude oil prices rose, with WTI reaching $106.40 per barrel, and gold prices increased to $1,283.50 per ounce. On the London Metal Exchange, copper fell slightly to $6,929.25 per ton.
In the domestic steel market, iron ore prices remained stable, with key indices showing small increases. Steel billet transactions were weak, and coke prices remained steady despite some fluctuations. Building materials and sheet prices showed minor increases, with regional variations across Beijing, Shanghai, and Guangzhou.
Overall, the steel market remains cautious, with expectations of continued volatility. While some bullish factors, such as urbanization and environmental policies, may support prices, demand remains weak in the off-season. Market participants are closely watching for any policy changes that could stimulate demand and stabilize prices in the coming weeks.
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