What signal did Premier Li Keqiang release during his last symposium during the year?

Premier Li Keqiang presided over a symposium yesterday to listen to the opinions and suggestions of experts, scholars and business leaders on the current economic situation and next economic work.

The First Financial Daily was informed that the economists and entrepreneurs who spoke at the meeting were in order: Zhou Qiren, professor of Peking University National Development Research Institute, Wu Xiaoqiu, director of the Institute of Finance and Securities, Renmin University of China, and chief economist of Mizuho Securities Asia Shen Jianguang, Chief Economist of Haitong Securities Li Xunlei, Chairman of Zoomlion Heavy Industry Co., Ltd. Zhan Chunxin, Chairman of Yizamp Group, Luo Feng, Chairman of China Merchants Bank Co., Ltd. Li Jianhong, and CEO of Jingdong Group Liu Qiangdong.

Officials close to the top have told this newspaper that, according to the usual practice, this symposium should be the last in the year. On the one hand, it is to periodically understand the opinions and opinions of various parties on the economy. On the other hand, it is worth the central government at this time. On the eve of the economic work conference, it is also a way to listen to outside opinions and suggestions.

The official researcher said that the people invited by the economic symposium were mainly famous scholars who studied the medium and long-term economic and major issues. The six symposiums held since Li Keqiang took office greatly improved entrepreneurs and marketization. The proportion of professional field economists. He believes that this not only means that the top management focuses on broader democracy in decision-making, but also shows that the layout of the Chinese economy is moving in a deeper and more professional direction.

What do economists think?

Among the eight speakers yesterday, the top four were economists.

In response to many discussions on the economic downturn, Li Keqiang once again made clear at the symposium yesterday that in the face of complex and severe economic situations, it is necessary to be good at the main veins of quasi-operation from the ever-changing economic phenomena, but also to see the general trend of development and respect. Objective law, democratic decision-making, scientific decision-making.

A review of the forecast reports of domestic and foreign financial institutions reveals that most institutions believe that it is more difficult for China to achieve the annual growth target of 7.5% GDP, but the predicted value is above 7.0%, which is a “reasonable space” defined by the government.

"Overall, China's economic downturn is difficult to change, but the adjustment method is good." Li Xunlei recently publicly stated that the main factor limiting the potential economic growth is the reduction in supply, including the problem of aging and the slowdown of investment growth.

Li Keqiang said yesterday that the judgment that the economic operation is in a reasonable range can achieve relatively adequate employment and basic price stability based on economic growth. In the course of development, the income of residents will increase, the ecological environment will improve, and the quality and efficiency will continue to improve.

"We must pay more attention to solving the real problems with a long-term approach, better use the role of the market mechanism to bring together new kinetic energy, and more efforts to promote scientific development and upgrade development in improving quality and efficiency and improving people's livelihood." Li Keqiang stressed As a large developing country, China must adhere to development as the top priority, focus on economic construction, firmly grasp the period of important strategic opportunities, and lay a solid foundation for development.

Among the economists attending the symposium, the presence of cautious pessimists further strengthened the market's expectations for subsequent stimulus policies. For example, Shen Jianguang and Li Xunlei have always been the representatives of the market calling for more stimulus policies.

In an exclusive interview with the "First Financial Daily", Shen Jianguang said that reform should be promoted in the context of stabilizing economic growth rather than in the case of economic downturn. In the latter case, the economic risks are greater and undesirable.

As for the policy of stabilizing the economy, in Shen Jianguang's view, it can be achieved through two paths: monetary policy and fiscal policy.

"From the perspective of monetary policy, although the current targeted RRR can play a role in the short term, it is mainly to hedge the negative impact of the shadow bank contraction... Given that the current 20% deposit reserve ratio has a very large tone Drop space, drop to 18%, 16% will not have any problems, it will also help the economy. Such monetary policy can more effectively stabilize the economy and better promote reform." Shen Jianguang told this reporter.

However, Shen Jianguang also said: "Monetary policy is a quantitative tool. For adjusting the economic structure, fiscal policy may be better."

Similar to Shen Jianguang, Li Xunlei is also more pessimistic about the current economic situation. He said in an interview with the reporter of China Business News that the current directional easing has replaced the fiscal policy and is not sustainable in the long run. In terms of structure, a more effective way is fiscal stimulus.

What did the entrepreneur say?

At yesterday's symposium, Li Keqiang once again stressed the need to introduce further measures such as decentralization and decentralization, and the combination of administrative approval, market barriers and various "roadblocks" to "do the law" and do a good job in market space and entrepreneurship. addition".

Some economists have told the newspaper recently that the relationship between the government and the market can be expressed in three ways: the government may be above the market, or it may fall into the market humbly, or it may fall to the bottom of the market. go with. He believes that economic theorists are to discuss this condition, what conditions allow the government to deviate from the market, stay away from the market, stay above the market, and what conditions allow it to come to the market.

As the main body of the market, at the symposium, after the economist, it was the turn of the entrepreneur to speak. The first entrepreneur to speak was Zhan Chunxin.

A senior executive of Zoomlion told this newspaper that Zhan Chunxin had rushed back from abroad after receiving a notice from the Prime Minister to listen to his opinions a few days ago.

A person familiar with the matter told this newspaper that Zhan Chunxin’s speech was mainly elaborated from the current state of the industry, the company’s own operations and recommendations. Premier Li Keqiang also asked him a number of related issues.

As a representative of the strong cyclical industry, its development is directly related to the macro economy. Since last year, the growth rate of fixed asset investment has slowed down, and the demand for downstream industries related to construction machinery is also in a downturn, which has led to the continued weakness of the industry.

Zoomlion’s first three quarter earnings report showed that the company’s revenue was 19.8 billion yuan, down 31.6% year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies fell by 73.6% year-on-year to 1 billion yuan. Not only its one, but also the performance of Sany Heavy Industry and Liugong, which is equivalent to the construction machinery industry, has also experienced a significant decline.

Not long ago, Zhan Chunxin mentioned in an exclusive interview with this reporter that the construction machinery is underemployed, but the pressure is not too big. “Because we were more cautious in the process of expanding production capacity. Zoomlion’s fixed assets are only More than 7 billion yuan, compared with other companies in the horizontal direction, we are relatively light and have better control over capacity expansion."

On the other hand, on the eve of the “Double 11” online shopping promotion, Jingdong founder Liu Qiangdong was invited as a representative of the e-commerce company to attract industry attention.

The information obtained by this newspaper shows that Liu Qiangdong said yesterday that the e-commerce industry is still at a high-speed development stage, while rural e-commerce, food fresh, and Internet finance are the driving forces for the future development of the e-commerce industry.

At the meeting, Liu Qiangdong called for the promotion of electronic invoices in the industry, the improvement of the social credit system, and the promotion of fairer and more standardized competition in the industry.

At the same time, Liu Qiangdong also advocated vigorously promoting the registration of sellers' electronic and industrial and commercial enterprises, strengthening cross-platform joint supervision, jointly cracking down on organized and large-scale sales of fake businesses, and preventing illegal activities of sellers and sellers on various platforms to protect consumer interests. Prime Minister Li Keqiang said that consumers should "dare to consume, willing to consume, and can consume".

Facing representatives from emerging industries and traditional industries, Li Keqiang pointed out yesterday that China's economy must be stable and far-reaching. It must focus on improving quality and efficiency, taking the road of innovation-driven development and creating an upgraded version. It is necessary to intensify efforts to support the development of new technologies, new models, new formats, and new industries, to "cultivate soil and fertilize" and create a new "engine" for the Chinese economy; and to commit to the traditional industries to "explore potential and open up wasteland" and promote high-end, Low-carbon, intelligent transformation, and promote "old tree sprouts."

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