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As the US dollar index climbed, the renminbi continued to decline. Onshore renminbi closed at 6.4917 on the 6.50 mark on Thursday, and the offshore renminbi fell below the 6.51 mark. The brokerage view believes that the economic fundamentals and investment yields are still the fundamental factors determining the trend of RMB demand and the RMB exchange rate. The RMB exchange rate still has favorable support. The RMB exchange rate lost 6.49 to a five-month low on Thursday, and the strong dollar is the main reason. Under the pressure of long-term confrontation between China and the United States in terms of trade, intellectual property rights and high technology, the renminbi is still weak. At present, brokerage analysts have screamed that the renminbi should continue to depreciate, and breaking 7 is a high probability event. In the last four trading days alone, the onshore RMB fell nearly 1,000 points, and today it closed at 6.4917; while the offshore RMB fell below 6.5, the lowest to 6.5166; the RMB-denominated central price announced earlier was 120 points. 6.4706, also a low of five months. Traders pointed out that the onshore passengers turned to net purchases and the liquidity was poor, which led to increased price volatility. In addition, the recent foreign dividends of enterprises and the repatriation of profits of foreign-funded enterprises also began to increase the purchase volume. “The renminbi has risen sharply in the first quarter. Since the second quarter, the market has not believed that the renminbi will depreciate rapidly.” Reuters quoted a Chinese-funded trader as saying: “There are some believes in the past few days, mainly because of Sino-US trade. The situation has deteriorated... If the trade war is deep, depreciation is also a good way.” Recently, the renminbi has undergone dramatic changes. Yesterday, the central parity of the RMB was sharply lowered by 351 points, the biggest drop since February 9th. On the first day after the Dragon Boat Festival, the RMB against the US dollar was 575 basis points, the largest single since the mid-April depreciation. Daily decline. The US dollar index continues to rebound The US dollar index is still the most important factor in the renminbi. If the US dollar index cannot continue to break through, the renminbi may quickly lose its downward momentum. Forex analyst Han Huishi issued a statement yesterday that the spot exchange rate continued to run above the middle price and was above the middle price of some "lower pricing", which may mean that the market's overall sentiment towards the renminbi is still empty. The probability of a foreign exchange deficit is higher. After the European Central Bank’s June meeting of the dovish meeting, the euro rose slightly, but then retreated and quickly fell. The US dollar index soared, rising nearly 1.7%, approaching the 95 mark. Huatai Securities (601688, shares) pointed out that the Fed’s hawks and the European Central Bank’s pigeons, the US dollar index may continue to rebound to the third quarter of this year, rising to the 94-97 range. At present, the market has already reflected the degree of “beauty and strong Europe”. As the European Central Bank cut QE as scheduled, the growth rate of the balance sheets of the two central banks has gradually converged. In addition, the central bank's willingness to stabilize the RMB exchange rate is stronger when the external environment is not friendly. How does the RMB exchange rate go? Many people in the industry generally expect that the RMB depreciation risk will remain controllable during the year. As long as the domestic economy does not experience major fluctuations, the RMB against the US dollar may be difficult to be strong at the beginning of the year, but it will not be depreciated sharply. However, there are also few viewpoints that the trade rate should be depreciated at the current trade war. Deng Haiqing, chief economist of Jiuzhou Securities, pointed out in the research report that the central bank should abandon the idea of ​​"protecting the exchange rate and abandoning foreign reserves" and reducing the intervention on the RMB exchange rate. It should follow the example of Japan and Europe and allow the RMB exchange rate to depreciate at a reasonable level. For the Sino-US trade conflicts that triggered the depreciation of the renminbi, analysts believe that the Chinese government is wise and capable of properly solving it. Chinese President Xi Jinping said on Thursday that it is now vigilant that when economic growth is still weak, trade protectionism, isolationism, and populism are on the rise, and countries must make big cakes together instead of fighting trade, simply not making cakes. . The State Administration of Foreign Exchange recently announced the data on bank settlement and sales in May and bank foreign exchange receipts and payments. The data shows that in May 2018, the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus was 123.5 billion yuan (equivalent to 19.4 billion US dollars), of which bank settlement on behalf of customers was 14.33 billion yuan. Compared with the previous month's data, the bank's foreign exchange settlement and sales surplus expanded in May, which was mainly due to the expansion of the bank's customer settlement and foreign exchange settlement. A spokesperson for the SAFE said that the balance of foreign exchange reserves fell by US$14.2 billion in May, mainly due to the combined effect of non-US dollar currencies against the US dollar and overall asset price increases. The domestic foreign exchange market continued to operate steadily. At present, cross-border capital flows of major channels have grown steadily and overall balance, and corporate exchange rates are expected to be generally stable. The spokesman said that since May, the international financial market has continued to fluctuate, and some emerging economies are facing capital outflows and currency depreciation pressures. China's economy has continued to maintain a stable overall, stable and moderate development trend, effectively stabilized market expectations, responded to changes in the external environment, and provided a fundamental guarantee for the smooth operation of China's foreign exchange market. Based on the downward revision of economic growth and interest rate forecasts, CICC adjusted the USD/RMB exchange rate forecast at the end of 2018 from the previous 6.18 to 6.38. On the one hand, the narrowing of short-term spreads between China and the United States will bring some pressure on the exchange rate of the RMB against the US dollar. On the other hand, the fundamentals of the economy and the rate of return on investment are still the fundamental factors determining the trend of RMB demand and the RMB exchange rate. According to CICC, in view of the fact that there are still a large number of RMB “short” positions in the market, and the US dollar and the US economy are unlikely to continue to “outperform” in the medium term, the RMB exchange rate is still considered to be more favorable.

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