Downstream stoppage pace until urea continues to cut prices

Domestic urea prices have remained relatively stable, but actual transaction prices in Shandong and Hebei have climbed to 1,570–1,580 yuan per ton, signaling a potential recovery from the recent low. However, the market lacks clear support from either international or domestic demand, as well as from production costs. With the fall fertilizer season approaching, the outlook remains weak, especially given the current bearish profit margins. As a result, prices are likely to continue falling in order to break the current stalemate. Looking ahead, with the upcoming completion of export shipments from major companies, downward pressure may intensify. While lower prices could attract some export orders or temporarily stabilize domestic demand, the overall market sentiment remains pessimistic. In addition, the lack of strong demand from key sectors like agriculture and industry is further weighing on the market. Many traders are closely watching for any signs of improvement, but so far, no significant catalysts have emerged. The situation is expected to remain volatile in the short term, with price fluctuations likely to persist until there is a clearer shift in market fundamentals.

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