Downstream stoppage pace until urea continues to cut prices

Domestic urea prices remain relatively stable, but actual transaction prices in Shandong and Hebei have climbed to 1,570–1,580 yuan per ton, signaling a potential recovery from the recent low. However, the market is still struggling to find clear support from either international or domestic demand, or from production cost fundamentals. With the fall fertilizer season underway, profit margins are under pressure, leading to further downward expectations. As export orders from various companies are expected to wind down soon, the market could see intensified price declines. While lower prices may attract some export interest or temporarily stabilize local demand, the overall outlook remains bleak. Buyers are cautious, and sellers are under pressure to reduce prices to move inventory. The current situation reflects a weak demand environment, with no immediate signs of improvement. Market participants are closely watching for any signals that might shift the balance, but for now, the trend seems to favor continued price weakness.

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