Double anti-lost support for photovoltaic industry recovery

**Abstract** China has taken active measures to curb the dumping of overseas polysilicon, which has helped drive up demand for polysilicon, especially with the rapid development of photovoltaic power plants. After the Spring Festival, the spot price of domestic solar-grade polysilicon continued its upward trend seen before the holiday. According to data released on February 9, the price of solar-grade polysilicon rose sharply from 150,000 yuan/ton in January to a recent high of 160,000 yuan/ton (equivalent to approximately $26.38 per kg at the February exchange rate). Some manufacturers are even facing supply shortages and have raised prices to as high as 165,000 yuan/ton. At the same time, the tight supply situation is also being reflected in the capital market. For example, GCL-Poly, a major player in the polysilicon industry, saw its stock price surge by over 10% in two consecutive trading days, from February 6 to February 7. This reflects growing investor confidence in the sector. Despite the current high prices, it's worth noting that the domestic polysilicon industry, particularly leading enterprises, has developed a strong sense of responsibility. Rather than simply capitalizing on the high prices, many companies are focusing on reducing production costs through technological innovation. They are also working closely with downstream industries to promote grid parity and expand the overall market for photovoltaics. Industry analysts believe that while the short-term price of polysilicon may remain around 160,000 yuan/ton, there could be a slight increase due to trade tensions and potential import tax evasion. However, in the medium to long term, prices are expected to stabilize and gradually decline. This is largely due to the anticipated mass production of silane fluidized bed granular silicon in the second half of 2014, which will significantly reduce production costs—by about 40% compared to the most advanced modified Siemens technology. As a result, polysilicon prices are expected to enter a downward trend, accelerating the achievement of grid parity for solar energy. In late January, China’s Ministry of Commerce announced the final results of its anti-dumping investigation into polysilicon imports from the U.S. and South Korea, and preliminary findings on EU imports. It was determined that EU-sourced polysilicon was dumped and caused substantial harm to China’s domestic industry. Although the initial ruling imposed high anti-dumping and countervailing duties, no temporary measures were implemented after the preliminary decision. According to insiders, the case may eventually lead to a “price commitment” between China and the EU, similar to past resolutions in the Sino-European PV dispute. This would help moderate the influx of cheap polysilicon and protect domestic producers. Meanwhile, foreign polysilicon companies are actively seeking ways to circumvent punitive tariffs. A significant portion of imports now comes through processing trade, which allows them to avoid import duties. In August and September 2013, over 80% of imported polysilicon entered China via this method. This has raised concerns among Chinese authorities, who are considering restricting such imports. The combination of trade policies, rising demand, and technological advancements continues to support the current upward trend in polysilicon prices. However, as new technologies like granular silicon become more widely adopted, the global polysilicon market is expected to see increased efficiency and lower costs. Companies like GCL-Poly, with massive production capacities and cutting-edge technology, are well-positioned to lead this transition and help bring down prices in the future.

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