Continued downward trend In 2016, the pressure on the machine tool industry continued to increase

Operational overview - running down, or from differentiation to assimilation
Under the influence of the comprehensive factors of domestic and international economic downturn, continued weak market demand and increasing difficulties in transformation and upgrading, the machine tool industry continued to show a significant downward trend in inertia throughout the year. Industry key contact network statistics show that in 2015, the main business income, industrial output value and product sales value of the three economic indicators showed a year-on-year decline in the proportion of enterprises accounted for about 70%, profit and tax realized two economic indicators showed a year-on-year decline Enterprises account for more than 60%. The situation of the industry's operation and exploration is spreading from the differentiation of some enterprises and sub-sectors to the assimilation of the whole industry.
1. Demand continues to drop sharply, sales are significantly down
The decline in demand is most directly reflected in the negative growth of order data. From January to December 2015, new orders for metalworking machine tools decreased by 15.4% year-on-year. Among them, new orders for metal cutting machine tools decreased by 15% year-on-year, and new orders for metal forming machine tools decreased by 16.8%.
Affected by the drastic drop in host orders and the supporting relationship between the mainframes, from January to December 2015, the revenue from the main business of the whole industry decreased by 9.2% year-on-year. The revenue from the main business of metal processing machine tools decreased by 11.3%, and the revenue from the main business of metal cutting machine tools decreased year-on-year. 10.8%, the main business income of metal forming machine tools decreased by 14%. Among the sub-sectors, the largest decline was in numerical control devices, down 18.3% year-on-year.
2. Production continued to drop sharply, and inventory increased slightly
The sharp decline in sales severely lowered the production input of enterprises. At the same time, due to the escalation of market demand and the structural contradiction between supply and demand, the inventory formed by the inertia of the company in the early stage was continuously backlogged, and some of the “dead stocks” that could not be realized were formed. From January to December 2015, the output of metal processing machine tools decreased by 19.6% year-on-year. Among them, the output of gold cutting machine tools decreased by 19.1% year-on-year, and the output of metal forming machine tools decreased by 22%. However, in the same period, the inventory of finished products of the whole industry increased by 3.2% year-on-year, and the inventory of finished products of metal processing machine tools increased by 2% year-on-year, of which metal cutting machine tools increased by 4.2%.
3. The quality of operation has dropped significantly
In the past five years, the continuous industrial downturn and the increasing comprehensive burden of enterprises, as well as the lack of effective promotion of industrial transformation and upgrading, the current operational quality of enterprises has declined significantly. The phenomenon of semi-discontinuation and production suspension has appeared continuously and has a tendency to expand. From January to December 2015, the total profit of the whole industry decreased by 43.5% year-on-year, and the total profit of metal processing machine tools decreased by 71%. Among them, the gold cutting machine tool decreased by 121.6% year-on-year, and the metal forming machine tool decreased by 15.3%. In the same period, the loss-making enterprises in the whole industry accounted for 39.9%, and the loss-making enterprises in metal processing machine tools accounted for 43.5%. Among them, the gold cutting machine tool is 47.7%, and the metal forming machine tool is 22.7%. Compared with December 2014, it expanded by 8, 6.8, 5 and 18.4 percentage points respectively.
4. Exports will increase and decrease, and capacity needs to be strengthened.
In 2015, the export growth rate turned positive, which was the first negative growth since 2010. From January to December 2015, exports were US$10.83 billion, down 6.9% year-on-year. Among them, the export value of metal processing machine tools was 3.2 billion US dollars, down 5.9% year-on-year; the export value of metal cutting machine tools was 2.1 billion US dollars, down 7.5% year-on-year; the export value of metal forming machine tools was 1.1 billion US dollars, down 2.7% year-on-year.
On the other hand, the proportion of exports in the entire output and the structure of export products are in urgent need of improvement. In 2015, the export dependence of metal processing machine tools was 14.5%, and the export dependence of industrial measuring tools was 46.4%. The top three exports in 2015 were cutting tools ($2.45 billion), abrasives ($2.09 billion) and metal cutting machines ($2.06 billion).

The latest features of the market - the traditional engine deceleration, the emerging power is insufficient 1. The traditional demand field has dropped significantly
Under the influence of sluggish demand in the domestic heavy chemical industry, slowing investment growth and “de-capacity and destocking”, domestic machine tool demand, output and imports in the above-mentioned fields have shown a further weakening trend. From January to December 2015, the total amount of fixed assets investment in the whole society increased by 10% year-on-year, down 5.7 percentage points from the same period of 2014; the completion of fixed assets investment in the secondary industry increased by 8% year-on-year, 5.2 points lower than the same period in 2014. percentage point. In 2015, the growth rate of fixed asset investment in the manufacturing sector in the secondary industry declined, and the growth rate of fixed asset investment in 23 sub-sectors declined, accounting for 74.2% of the total. Among these sub-fields of declining growth rate, they are mainly concentrated in energy equipment manufacturing, transportation manufacturing, metal products manufacturing, mining equipment manufacturing, chemical products manufacturing, and metal smelting manufacturing. Since the above fields are also the main traditional market for machine tools, they also reduce the demand for machine tool consumption. From January to December 2015, the consumption of metal processing machine tools was 27.5 billion US dollars, down 13.5% year-on-year; the consumption of metal tools was 4.5 billion US dollars, down 12.1% year-on-year. In the same period, the total import value of machine tools and tools was US$ 14.69 billion, down 17.3% year-on-year; the import value of metal processing machine tools was US$ 8.6 billion, down 20.4% year-on-year (the import value of metal cutting machine tools was US$ 7 billion, down 20.8% year-on-year; US$100 million, down 16.2% year-on-year; the import volume of construction tools was US$1.5 billion, down 6.8% year-on-year.
2. Emerging demand drives structural upgrading, but lacks motivation
There are 8 sub-areas in the growth rate of fixed asset investment in manufacturing, accounting for 25.8% of the total. Among them, automobile manufacturing, instrumentation, textile apparel and information and communication industry are the main growth drivers, and are also inseparable from the rapid growth of emerging domestic demand areas (new energy vehicles, smart manufacturing, expanding consumption and Internet +).
• From January to December 2015, the growth rate of fixed asset investment growth was in the manufacturing sector: automobile manufacturing (14.2% growth rate, 5.9 percentage points higher than the same period in 2014), instrumentation (increased rate of 10.7%, compared with the same period in 2014) Growth of 5.8 percentage points), textile apparel (22% growth rate, 2.8 percentage points higher than the same period in 2014) and information and communication industry (13.3% growth, an increase of 2.6 percentage points over the same period in 2014).
• It should also be noted that the rapid growth of investment in these areas is closely related to the historical base and the low proportion of total investment. In 2015, the automotive manufacturing, instrumentation, textile apparel and information and communication industries accounted for 6.4%, 0.9%, 2.5% and 5% of the total fixed asset investment in manufacturing. The rapid growth of demand in these areas is clearly insufficient for the machine tool industry.

Change and estimation
Comprehensive analysis of various aspects, combined with the characteristics of the machine tool manufacturing industry, the basic estimates of industry and market development in 2016 are briefly summarized as follows.
1. The overall outlook is good
The Chinese government regards steady growth as the top priority of economic work in the future. At the same time, it also points out that China's economic operation will show an "L"-shaped trend, and accordingly issued a series of policy measures. Many of these policy measures are unprecedented, such as de-capacity, de-stocking, deleveraging, cost reduction, and short-boarding. This indicates that the decision-making layer has accurate judgments and sufficient risk estimates for current Chinese economic trends. Therefore, considering the economic base and development prospects of China, the overall outlook for the future is good.
2. Increased transformation pressure
As the user fields of the machine tool industry are facing different degrees of development lag and transformation and upgrading, the structural contradiction between supply and demand has become increasingly prominent. At the same time, the domestic and international economies are in a state of difficult recovery, and volatility and cyclicality will exist for a long time. In 2016, the industry operation situation will be very severe, and the transformation pressure will be further increased. (Author: China Machine Tool Industry Association Information and Statistics Department Du Zhiqiang)

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