Zhongzhou Futures: The trend of aluminum aluminum, the shape is close to perfect

The lower-than-expected GDP data failed to affect the trend of the metal market. The red line was all over the board. Zinc, lead and aluminum hit new highs again. Only copper oscillated sideways. The recent trend of the metal market showed strong independence.

1. US dollar: Maintaining the oscillation of the interval, the trend of the broader market for commodities has become weaker. The US GDP data for the third quarter increased by 1.6% from the previous quarter, which was lower than the market forecast of 2.2%. The mixed data for the past week was lower than the final dollar price and closed at a three-week low.

2. Gold: The weakening of the US dollar has supported a stronger trend of gold. Recently, around the 600 price line in the key price range, it has been cautiously arranged. The technical shape has maintained the opportunistic characteristics of waiting for a breakthrough.

3. Crude oil: With the support of OPEC's firm production cuts, crude oil is expected to emerge from the decline, and it will enter the pattern of repeated oscillations around the end of 60 days. Helps to slow down the bearish effect on the broader market. From the recent trend of metals, we also saw changes in its bearish influence.

4. Inventory and labor disputes still affect the market sentiment of supply worries. There are 126,000 copper and 682,400 aluminum minus 2,200 tons. Shanghai copper stocks stood at 31,700, a decrease of 1,869, and aluminum, 35,500, a decrease of 2,587. About 6,000 workers at the Norte copper mine in Chile's Codelco rejected labor negotiations last week, and formal negotiations will begin after November 17.

5. Understanding of the 15% tariff imposed on the export of commodities such as copper and aluminum: There is no doubt that the regulation of domestic supply will increase in the medium and long term. The strong export of the early market or the early digestion of this, in the context of low inventory and strong consumption, the short-term bearish is limited.

6, Lon-Au last week completed the technical moves of the interval platform to break through the test. Trend review: The 2400-2700 range oscillated for more than 4 months, during which 2 impacts of 2700 failed. Last week, a clear volume broke through the resistance of the 2700 platform. After the test, it reached new heights, and the daily portfolio was up and down. Looking at the weekly line, the six-week positive line combination makes the shape of the figure appear as a large arc feature, and with the long line support of the moving average system, the shape is close to perfect.

Recommendation: The premium structure in the spot market still supports more than one holding.