Non-ferrous metals: eye-catching performance of aluminum and small metals

Recently, LME metal prices have been repeatedly oscillating for copper prices. Aluminum prices and the prices of small metals such as lead, tin and nickel have risen rapidly. Lead and nickel prices have hit record highs. Reasons: 1) Supply instability: Currently global primary aluminum There is still a shortage, and the supply of small metals such as lead, tin, and nickel is also unstable. In particular, Indonesia's closure of three tin refineries in the previous period caused a 12% rise in the price of tin in one day; 2) Inventories low: Currently aluminum, lead, zinc The stocks of metals such as nickel and nickel have continued to decline, and the level is at historically low levels; 3) The transfer of funds from the copper market to the aluminum market and small metal market is the direct cause of the price increase; in particular, the transaction volume of the small metal market Smaller, more easily manipulated by funds. Market outlook: It is expected to continue to oscillate higher, especially aluminum prices, which are expected to increase sharply in response to demand pulls and relatively low prices of various metals.

The National Bureau of Statistics released data on China's major metal production from January to September. The highest output growth was alumina (9.51 million tons, an increase of 53%), tin (104,000 tons, an increase of 23.1%), and copper ( Output was 2,162,700 tons, an increase of 21.4% over the previous year; slow growth was nickel (production was 74,900 tons, a year-on-year increase of 10.9%), and zinc (output was 2,511,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 14.3%).

From January to August, China's non-ferrous metals import and export trade volume increased steadily to US$39.606 billion, up 31.9% over the same period of last year; of which, the export value was US$14.813 billion, which was 40.6% year-on-year; the import value was US$24.693 billion, which was a year-on-year increase of 27.1%; The total amount continued to maintain the growth momentum, but the import and export volume of some metal species declined, and the total increase was mainly due to the sharp rise in metal prices; the import volume was higher than the export volume in January-August, but the increase export was greater than the import, and the trade deficit was 9.98 billion US dollars. This was an increase of 11.3% over the same period last year.

ICSG (International Copper Research Group) predicts that the global refined copper surplus in 2007 will be 180,000 tons, which is higher than the level of surplus in 2006; the main reasons for the surplus are: 1) recovery of production; 2) slowdown in economic growth in the United States and China. Demand growth slowed.

The Escondida copper strike caused the copper giant’s copper production to decline in the third quarter; BHP Billiton, which holds a 57.5% stake in Escondida, announced that the third quarter’s production of copper decreased by 23% year-on-year, while holding 30% of the mine. Rio Tinto of the shares announced that its copper production in the third quarter was down 6% year-on-year, and refined copper production was down 15%.