Stalling at the end of October, foreign exchange reserves fell to 3.12 trillion US dollars

According to data from the central bank on the 7th, China’s foreign exchange reserves at the end of October were 3.12 trillion US dollars, lower than the expected 3.13 trillion US dollars, and the value before September was 3.17 trillion US dollars. The scale of foreign reserves fell to the lowest since March 2011. At the same time, the scale of foreign reserves has fallen for four consecutive months, a decrease of 45.7 billion US dollars from the previous month, the largest decline since January.
However, it is worth noting that compared with the current decline in foreign exchange reserves, the bank's settlement of foreign exchange settlement is greater, reflecting the current situation that the current wealth management rate is declining. At present, the resident deposits are facing foreign currency problems, and this is further Increase exchange rate pressure.
In this regard, the CITIC Solids Research Report believes that comparing the relative stability of the RMB against other currencies and the CFETS index, it can be seen that the depreciation of the current round of the Renminbi is mainly guided by the US dollar, while the central bank is a homeopathic attitude. "At present, the fundamentals of the US economy are healthy and the interest rate hike is visible at the end of the year. Therefore, under the background of the Fed’s high probability of raising interest rates during the year, there is still room for a stronger US dollar. The depreciation of the renminbi is difficult, and the impact on capital outflows will continue." CITIC Securities chief bond analyst Ming Ming said.
However, Yan Ling, a macro analyst at China Merchants Group, believes that the decline in foreign exchange reserves, excluding exchange rate conversion factors, has narrowed rather than expanded. "At the end of October, the central bank's official foreign exchange reserve balance was 3.12 trillion US dollars, a decrease of 45.7 billion US dollars from the previous month, the month that fell the most in a single month in the past nine months. We estimate that the impact of the exchange rate conversion factor in October is -28.9 billion US dollars, if deducted This factor, the central bank's official foreign exchange reserves fell by 16.8 billion US dollars, the value fell by 24.1 billion US dollars in September. From this perspective, the decline in foreign exchange reserves in October narrowed rather than expanded.
In Yan Ling's view, although the capital continued to flow out and the RMB exchange rate depreciated by 1.5%, the supply and demand of the foreign exchange market did not accelerate and deteriorated this month. The RMB exchange rate index was basically stable in October. However, the volume of transactions in the foreign exchange market increased significantly during the month, which was due to the significant increase in the willingness of residents to purchase foreign exchange due to risk factors such as Brexit or the increase in market activity. This also requires observing foreign exchange holdings and settlement and sales data.
For the impact of continued shrinkage of foreign reserves and future policy trends, CITIC Securities' chief bond analyst Ming Ming said that under the pressure of foreign reserves, it is necessary to pay attention to the impact of foreign exchange holdings on liquidity. Foreign reserves and foreign exchange accounts can reflect the foreign exchange trading between the banking system and the non-bank system to a certain extent. Therefore, under the shrinking scale of foreign reserves, we must pay attention to the downward pressure on foreign exchange.

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