People's Daily: China's economic stall theory has not broken

A few days ago, the National Bureau of Statistics released the national economy in the first three quarters of 2016. According to preliminary calculations, the gross domestic product of the first three quarters was 529.971 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.7% at comparable prices. Looking at the quarter, the third quarter grew by 6.7%, continuing the good momentum of the previous two quarters. Analysts generally believe that the current Chinese economy is not only generally stable, but also some key data reflecting economic trends, growth structure and development quality are better than expected, and the overall economy is “steadily advanced, stable and improving”. At the same time, these facts also mean that some of the "stall theory" arguments that have rendered the Chinese economy "hard landing" and "falling into recession" have not been broken.

Key data is better than expected
For children and adolescents, height growth may be the most intuitive standard for judging their growth and development; but as adults, the indicators will gradually expand to more dimensions such as cognition, thinking, and emotion. In fact, the same is true for the growth of any economy.
Despite the good performance of the Chinese economy under the new normal, some international organizations have thrown out from time to time the argument that the Chinese economy is “slowly stalled”, arguing that the Chinese economy will slow down sharply in the second quarter of this year and the subsequent quarters, and assert that the Chinese economy The disappearance of growth momentum is "just a matter of time." But this time, the "stall theory" was once again "face".
The indicators of industrial electricity consumption, power generation and freight volume have all improved significantly; the total retail sales of social consumer goods increased by 10.4% year-on-year; the actual growth rate of per capita income of the national residents is higher than the growth rate of per capita GDP; the growth rate of private investment is faster than that of January-August. 0.4 percentage points; the number of new jobs in urban areas was 10.67 million, and the expected target for the whole year was completed one quarter ahead of time... In the latest answer to the Chinese economy, not only GDP continued to maintain medium-to-high-speed growth, but also many key indicators were better than expected.
Xu Hongcai, deputy chief economist of China International Economic Exchange Center, pointed out in an interview with this reporter that the performance of the main data of China's economy in the first three quarters of this year was encouraging, and that the arguments of "stall theory" and "hard landing" have been broken. “Although China’s GDP growth rate is 6.7% in the third quarter of this year, don’t forget that China’s economy grew by a quarter-on-quarter last year. Therefore, the growth base in the third quarter of this year is actually larger than that in the first and second quarters. At the same time, the gold content of our economic growth is also higher than before." Xu Hongcai stressed.
In the view of many scholars such as Hu Chi, a researcher at the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council, in the context of the global economic environment still full of uncertainty and weak recovery, China’s current macroeconomic performance is still very bright in comparison with other countries in the world. Maintaining a 6.7% GDP growth rate is commendable.

The effect of structural adjustment is real
In fact, compared with the economic growth itself, the current economic structural transformation and changes in the data related to the old and new kinetic energy conversion are obviously more reference for judging the medium and long-term trend of the Chinese economy.
Sheng Laiyun, a spokesperson for the National Bureau of Statistics, said that the current supply-side structural reforms have made positive progress, and new kinetic energy is accelerating growth, so the foundation for "stable" has been strengthened. Specifically: First, the "three to one, one drop and one supplement" has achieved practical results. For example, in the first three quarters, raw coal production fell by 10.5% year-on-year. At the end of September, the area of ​​commercial housing for sale decreased for seven consecutive months, and both corporate costs and asset-liability ratios declined. Second, the industrial structure continues to escalate. In the first three quarters, the proportion of added value of services to GDP increased by 1.6 percentage points over the same period of last year. The added value of high-tech industries and the added value of equipment manufacturing industry grew faster than the growth rate of industrial added value above designated size. Third, the demand structure continues to escalate. Among them, the investment in high-tech industries, the proportion of investment in the service industry is increasing, while the proportion of high-energy-consuming industries is declining.
At the press conference on October 20, the relevant person in charge of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology further stated that in the first three quarters, the contribution rate of China's high-tech manufacturing value added to industrial growth reached more than 20%; in the first eight months, the output of industrial robots increased year-on-year. More than 30%, the output growth of solar cells and optoelectronic devices is above 20%. It is not difficult to see that this is similar to the seemingly subtle changes in “unit GDP energy consumption decreased by 5.2% year-on-year” and “14,600 new daily registered enterprises”, which not only strongly confirmed the effectiveness of China’s economic restructuring, but also Reflecting the growing power of the new economy.
“The decline in excess capacity, the decline in real estate inventories, the further reduction in corporate costs, and the timely replenishment of infrastructure investment... It can be said that the initial results of our supply-side structural reforms have been reflected in macroeconomic data.” Xu Hongcai said. Achievements do not mean that there is no problem. In the future, all walks of life will need to implement the central reform measures in a down-to-earth manner, and actively promote high-pollution and high-energy-consuming industries to reduce capacity and achieve transformation and upgrading.

Reform is firmly expected
It is worth noting that with the introduction of various reform measures and the fact that the Chinese economy has used facts again and again, the "stall theory" has become more and more market at home and abroad, and the more rational the rational analysis and the positive expectation of the future Chinese economy The more you come.
In its report released at the end of September, the Asian Development Bank raised its forecast for China’s economic growth this year and next; the latest World Economic Outlook report released by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this month is also comprehensive. While lowering the economic growth rate of developed economies, China's economic growth rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.6% and 6.2% this year and next; Bloomberg said in the report that China's economic growth target this year is completely within reach.
Some Argentine scholars further pointed out that before the release of GDP in the third quarter, some economists had worried that the Chinese economy might continue to slow down, but the 6.7% increase would undoubtedly respond to these doubts. "China's latest economic data has finally ushered in a glimmer of light in the world economy that has been hit by bad news recently," the scholar said.
Experts said that in the context of the world economic recovery is still weak and trade protectionism is on the rise, the Chinese economy will still face some external uncertainties in the future. However, as long as we continue to firmly push forward various reform measures and actively foster new growth drivers, the Chinese economy will surely achieve a new round of strong growth and bring more opportunities to the world.
Zhang Liqun, a researcher at the Development Research Center of the State Council, said that China’s long-term economic fundamentals have not changed, and with the advancement of urbanization, industrialization, marketization, and internationalization, the driving force for economic growth will become stronger and stronger; Xu Hongcai predicts that In the future, China's macroeconomic policy will not change. The GDP growth rate in the fourth quarter may be 6.6%. The economic growth rate next year should not be lower than 6.5%.

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