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Alcan has made two assumptions about the global supply and demand of aluminum in 2007: one is the “bull market†situation, that is, except for China, the demand for primary aluminum will increase by 2.5% to 26.15 million tons, and China’s net exports will decrease by 10%. Tens of thousands of tons will supply 250,000 tons of primary aluminum in other parts of the world except China; the other is the “bear market†situation, where the demand for primary aluminum in regions other than China only increases by 1.5%. 25.9 million tons, while the net exports from China increased by 100,000 tons, the surplus of primary aluminum supply in other regions, including China, will be 200,000 tons.