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Although Chinalco's price adjustment has not yet been announced, the spot price of non-aluminum-based aluminum is currently as low as 2,600 yuan-2,650 yuan / ton is still falling, or even fall. This is the trend of alumina prices that have been raging since the middle of this year.
Since Chinalco lowered its alumina ex-factory price to RMB 2950/t at the end of September this year, the domestic alumina market price has not recovered but has fallen further. The sharp drop in the price of aluminum oxide has not only limited the impact on the aluminum industry chain to electrolytic aluminum, but even the field of deep processing of aluminum and the mining and development of bauxite will change the pattern.
Although most researchers continue to be optimistic about the future development of electrolytic aluminum due to the reduction in the cost of electrolytic aluminum production, there are also a few who are concerned that the stimulation of profits may lead to the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and thus lower the future price of electrolytic aluminum. After several years of macro-control, the electrolytic aluminum industry has just seen hope, but it seems to stand at another crossroads.
Chinalco has not announced price adjustments. It is understood that in the middle of October this year, the Minmetals Corporation lowered the import price of alumina from 3,200 yuan/ton to 2,800 yuan/ton, and broke through the price of 2,950 yuan/ton after China Aluminum's price adjustment at the end of September. The horizontal line. In addition, the non-aluminum company's alumina spot price is currently as low as 2600 yuan -2650 yuan / ton, some large orders even get further benefits.
Although there was a recent market rumor that China Aluminum will reduce its alumina ex-factory price to 2,500 yuan/ton on November 1, and said that some domestic aluminum spot companies have received notification from China Aluminum, as of the time of the press release, China The aluminum industry has not yet announced that it will reduce its alumina ex-factory prices. Chinalco's marketing department's external online quotation is still maintained at 2,950 yuan per ton of aluminum oxide and 2,000 yuan per ton of aluminum hydroxide. Chinalco's companies including Shandong Aluminum (600205) and other foreign quotations are also implementing Chinalco's uniform prices.
Due to the current supply of aluminum oxide in the domestic market consisting of Chinalco, non-aluminum and non-aluminum imports, the quoted prices of non-aluminum products and imports have declined by a certain margin compared to the end of September, and are lower than China's. The uniform quotation of aluminum has brought pressure on the sales of Chinalco-based companies.
Some researchers believe that in the past, Chinalco's previous price adjustments have lagged slightly behind the non-aluminum and imported alumina prices. This is because Chinalco's price adjustments involve multiple companies; on the other hand, Chinalco’s market share Far larger than non-aluminum and imported alumina. China Aluminum's alumina market share is currently higher than 50% in China, and its share in some regions is still higher than the average. Although Chinalco-based companies have released a large amount of production capacity this year, their market share is still low. The proportion of imported alumina has also been reduced due to the increase in domestic production capacity. Therefore, Chinalco's offer adjustments often lag behind changes in market prices.
The possibility of price adjustment is increasing Although China Aluminum has not adjusted the ex-factory price of alumina, under the pressure of the market, the possibility of lowering ex-factory prices will increase day by day. The continued expansion of non-China Aluminum production capacity and the drop in import costs have led industry players to believe that price cuts are not far off.
In fact, the country’s policy of reducing alumina import tariffs and increasing export duties on electrolytic aluminum has become an important factor affecting the continued decline in alumina market prices. On October 27, the Ministry of Finance announced that since November 1st, the import duty on alumina has been reduced from 5.5% to 3%, while the export duty on electrolytic aluminum has been raised from 5% to 15%. The tariff adjustment will reduce the alumina import tariff rate to a new low, and domestic alumina importers will also face a better business environment. It is understood that the foreign offshore alumina quoted price is about 240-250 US dollars / ton, the Chinese port CIF price is about 260-270 US dollars / ton, the CIF is only about 2100 yuan / ton, much lower Chinalco's offer.
Chinalco's pressure on price adjustments comes more from domestic sources. Compared with the market share of many non-aluminum-based manufacturers that have been put into production this year, the import of alumina has a relatively small influence. In the previous price adjustments made by Chinalco since August this year, non-Chinese aluminum suppliers such as Shandong Xinfa Huayu Alumina Co., Ltd. and Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd. have become the main factors in guiding market prices. They adjust prices flexibly and each time they go. In front of Chinalco.
Because there is a gap between the ex-factory price of Chinalco and the current market price, and this gap has widened, the market generally expects that if Chinalco adjusts its price again, it will make its ex-factory price as low as 2,500 yuan/ton or less. If calculated by 2,500 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price after China Aluminum's price adjustment will be 55.75% lower than the price of 5650 yuan/ton in early August of this year, and 15.25% lower than the price of 2,950 yuan/ton after the price adjustment at the end of September. Although this price reduction is impressive, it has already been accepted by the international market. International alumina prices have fallen from the high point of 650 US dollars/ton after the middle of this year to the current 270 US dollars/ton, and the price reduction has reached 58.46%.
Electrolytic aluminum is at a new crossroads Contradictory to the joy when the alumina prices were just lowered, some electrolytic aluminum companies even started to worry that the sharp drop in alumina prices would have a negative impact on them. The electrolytic aluminum industry that has just emerged from the haze of macroeconomic regulation seems to stand at another crossroads. There is still a lot of disagreement as to whether the price reduction of raw materials brings opportunity or crisis.
“There are always two aspects of the matter,†said the person in charge of an electrolytic aluminum plant in China. Although the decline in alumina prices as raw materials can reduce the production costs of electrolytic aluminum companies, each price reduction also means the profit of electrolytic aluminum. The space is expanding, which may lead to the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. In particular, previously dormant projects may “recoverâ€.
This worry is not unfounded. According to statistics, there are 11 large-scale electrolytic aluminum projects currently under construction in China, with a total design capacity of 1.4 million tons/year. In 2006, the total domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity will also expand to 11.6 million tons. Compared with the growth rate of demand, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production is faster. Zhou Zhuoxin, an analyst in the non-ferrous metals industry at Galaxy Securities, pointed out in his research report that the global primary aluminum consumer market is in a state of tight balance this year and is expected to be in a weak equilibrium next year.
The reporter learned from the interview that Chinalco did not immediately follow the market and quickly lowered the price of alumina. There was also pressure from the downstream electrolytic aluminum manufacturers. That is, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers are concerned that the lower price of alumina will eventually affect the price of electrolytic aluminum.
Sudden rise in policy risks Electrolytic aluminum companies that experienced the era of high alumina prices are more frightened, and their response to policy risks is quite dramatic. The news that the export tariff on electrolytic aluminum increased from 5% to 15% on October 27 was generally interpreted by the market as bearish. After the tariff adjustment news was announced, aluminum prices fell on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and AL0701 fell from 21,000 yuan/ton on October 27 to 19,810 yuan/ton on November 2.
The purpose of the State's increase in the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum is to reduce the consumption of energy and resources and exports, and it is consistent with the long-term policy of reducing the energy consumption per unit of GDP. This policy also reduces the possibility of the restart of domestic idle alumina capacity. Statistics show that the export of domestic primary aluminum has shown a downward trend since the beginning of this year. In the first eight months of this year, the net export volume of primary aluminum was 377,200 tons, which was 8% lower than the same period in 2005. The new tariff rate will further inhibit the export of electrolytic aluminum, which will put pressure on the domestic electrolytic aluminum market.
Under this series of changes, there are differences in the industry's current direction for electrolytic aluminum companies. Some researchers believe that there is little possibility of a significant drop in the price of electrolytic aluminum, and therefore pay more attention to the profit margin that aluminum oxide prices have brought to the electrolytic aluminum enterprises. It is believed that the price reduction of aluminum oxide will increase the investment value of electrolytic aluminum enterprises.
Another point of view pointed out that in the era of high alumina, the profit increase caused by each price reduction of aluminum oxide to electrolytic aluminum enterprises is considerable, but now the price of alumina is decreasing and is close to the production cost, and the domestic alumina production enterprises are generally producing. The cost is between RMB 2,000 and RMB 2,200 per ton. It is very difficult to extract profit from the price reduction of alumina if the market price is close to the cost price. Unless the alumina companies are fighting the price war regardless of cost, this is obviously not. Too much. For electrolytic aluminum companies, the future depends more on the trend of aluminum prices.
The changes in the profit restructuring price of the aluminum industry chain have brought shocks to the entire industry chain. The protagonists in the future of the aluminum industry may no longer be the “alumina-electrolytic aluminum†old friends, and the bauxite that extends upwards. The field of aluminum deep processing, which extends from mining and development, is expected to become the aluminum industry's profit center under the new pattern.
From the current situation of the industrial chain, the capacity bottleneck between electrolytic aluminum and alumina has been opened up, and the bottleneck of the entire industry is shifting towards bauxite. The large-scale production of alumina projects means a large demand for bauxite, and at present domestic Most alumina producers do not have matching bauxite mine resources. The fact that China's bauxite resources are lacking has enabled alumina companies to go abroad and use foreign alumina resources, so the price of bauxite is currently under revaluation.
The actual controller of S Guanghua (000703), Guo Yinghui of Henan Huilong Aluminum Industry Co., previously stated that its subsidiaries had previously planned to expand to aluminum aluminum oxide, which used to belong to the giant profits point, but now they are more aware that With the adjustment of national policies, the aluminum industry's profit center will gradually shift toward the two ends of the industrial chain—mines and deep-processing end products. Especially with the encouragement of technological progress and policies, the market and profit margin of aluminum terminal products will be opened.
Since Chinalco lowered its alumina ex-factory price to RMB 2950/t at the end of September this year, the domestic alumina market price has not recovered but has fallen further. The sharp drop in the price of aluminum oxide has not only limited the impact on the aluminum industry chain to electrolytic aluminum, but even the field of deep processing of aluminum and the mining and development of bauxite will change the pattern.
Although most researchers continue to be optimistic about the future development of electrolytic aluminum due to the reduction in the cost of electrolytic aluminum production, there are also a few who are concerned that the stimulation of profits may lead to the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity and thus lower the future price of electrolytic aluminum. After several years of macro-control, the electrolytic aluminum industry has just seen hope, but it seems to stand at another crossroads.
Chinalco has not announced price adjustments. It is understood that in the middle of October this year, the Minmetals Corporation lowered the import price of alumina from 3,200 yuan/ton to 2,800 yuan/ton, and broke through the price of 2,950 yuan/ton after China Aluminum's price adjustment at the end of September. The horizontal line. In addition, the non-aluminum company's alumina spot price is currently as low as 2600 yuan -2650 yuan / ton, some large orders even get further benefits.
Although there was a recent market rumor that China Aluminum will reduce its alumina ex-factory price to 2,500 yuan/ton on November 1, and said that some domestic aluminum spot companies have received notification from China Aluminum, as of the time of the press release, China The aluminum industry has not yet announced that it will reduce its alumina ex-factory prices. Chinalco's marketing department's external online quotation is still maintained at 2,950 yuan per ton of aluminum oxide and 2,000 yuan per ton of aluminum hydroxide. Chinalco's companies including Shandong Aluminum (600205) and other foreign quotations are also implementing Chinalco's uniform prices.
Due to the current supply of aluminum oxide in the domestic market consisting of Chinalco, non-aluminum and non-aluminum imports, the quoted prices of non-aluminum products and imports have declined by a certain margin compared to the end of September, and are lower than China's. The uniform quotation of aluminum has brought pressure on the sales of Chinalco-based companies.
Some researchers believe that in the past, Chinalco's previous price adjustments have lagged slightly behind the non-aluminum and imported alumina prices. This is because Chinalco's price adjustments involve multiple companies; on the other hand, Chinalco’s market share Far larger than non-aluminum and imported alumina. China Aluminum's alumina market share is currently higher than 50% in China, and its share in some regions is still higher than the average. Although Chinalco-based companies have released a large amount of production capacity this year, their market share is still low. The proportion of imported alumina has also been reduced due to the increase in domestic production capacity. Therefore, Chinalco's offer adjustments often lag behind changes in market prices.
The possibility of price adjustment is increasing Although China Aluminum has not adjusted the ex-factory price of alumina, under the pressure of the market, the possibility of lowering ex-factory prices will increase day by day. The continued expansion of non-China Aluminum production capacity and the drop in import costs have led industry players to believe that price cuts are not far off.
In fact, the country’s policy of reducing alumina import tariffs and increasing export duties on electrolytic aluminum has become an important factor affecting the continued decline in alumina market prices. On October 27, the Ministry of Finance announced that since November 1st, the import duty on alumina has been reduced from 5.5% to 3%, while the export duty on electrolytic aluminum has been raised from 5% to 15%. The tariff adjustment will reduce the alumina import tariff rate to a new low, and domestic alumina importers will also face a better business environment. It is understood that the foreign offshore alumina quoted price is about 240-250 US dollars / ton, the Chinese port CIF price is about 260-270 US dollars / ton, the CIF is only about 2100 yuan / ton, much lower Chinalco's offer.
Chinalco's pressure on price adjustments comes more from domestic sources. Compared with the market share of many non-aluminum-based manufacturers that have been put into production this year, the import of alumina has a relatively small influence. In the previous price adjustments made by Chinalco since August this year, non-Chinese aluminum suppliers such as Shandong Xinfa Huayu Alumina Co., Ltd. and Shandong Weiqiao Aluminum Co., Ltd. have become the main factors in guiding market prices. They adjust prices flexibly and each time they go. In front of Chinalco.
Because there is a gap between the ex-factory price of Chinalco and the current market price, and this gap has widened, the market generally expects that if Chinalco adjusts its price again, it will make its ex-factory price as low as 2,500 yuan/ton or less. If calculated by 2,500 yuan/ton, the ex-factory price after China Aluminum's price adjustment will be 55.75% lower than the price of 5650 yuan/ton in early August of this year, and 15.25% lower than the price of 2,950 yuan/ton after the price adjustment at the end of September. Although this price reduction is impressive, it has already been accepted by the international market. International alumina prices have fallen from the high point of 650 US dollars/ton after the middle of this year to the current 270 US dollars/ton, and the price reduction has reached 58.46%.
Electrolytic aluminum is at a new crossroads Contradictory to the joy when the alumina prices were just lowered, some electrolytic aluminum companies even started to worry that the sharp drop in alumina prices would have a negative impact on them. The electrolytic aluminum industry that has just emerged from the haze of macroeconomic regulation seems to stand at another crossroads. There is still a lot of disagreement as to whether the price reduction of raw materials brings opportunity or crisis.
“There are always two aspects of the matter,†said the person in charge of an electrolytic aluminum plant in China. Although the decline in alumina prices as raw materials can reduce the production costs of electrolytic aluminum companies, each price reduction also means the profit of electrolytic aluminum. The space is expanding, which may lead to the expansion of electrolytic aluminum production capacity. In particular, previously dormant projects may “recoverâ€.
This worry is not unfounded. According to statistics, there are 11 large-scale electrolytic aluminum projects currently under construction in China, with a total design capacity of 1.4 million tons/year. In 2006, the total domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity will also expand to 11.6 million tons. Compared with the growth rate of demand, the growth rate of electrolytic aluminum production is faster. Zhou Zhuoxin, an analyst in the non-ferrous metals industry at Galaxy Securities, pointed out in his research report that the global primary aluminum consumer market is in a state of tight balance this year and is expected to be in a weak equilibrium next year.
The reporter learned from the interview that Chinalco did not immediately follow the market and quickly lowered the price of alumina. There was also pressure from the downstream electrolytic aluminum manufacturers. That is, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers are concerned that the lower price of alumina will eventually affect the price of electrolytic aluminum.
Sudden rise in policy risks Electrolytic aluminum companies that experienced the era of high alumina prices are more frightened, and their response to policy risks is quite dramatic. The news that the export tariff on electrolytic aluminum increased from 5% to 15% on October 27 was generally interpreted by the market as bearish. After the tariff adjustment news was announced, aluminum prices fell on the Shanghai Futures Exchange, and AL0701 fell from 21,000 yuan/ton on October 27 to 19,810 yuan/ton on November 2.
The purpose of the State's increase in the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum is to reduce the consumption of energy and resources and exports, and it is consistent with the long-term policy of reducing the energy consumption per unit of GDP. This policy also reduces the possibility of the restart of domestic idle alumina capacity. Statistics show that the export of domestic primary aluminum has shown a downward trend since the beginning of this year. In the first eight months of this year, the net export volume of primary aluminum was 377,200 tons, which was 8% lower than the same period in 2005. The new tariff rate will further inhibit the export of electrolytic aluminum, which will put pressure on the domestic electrolytic aluminum market.
Under this series of changes, there are differences in the industry's current direction for electrolytic aluminum companies. Some researchers believe that there is little possibility of a significant drop in the price of electrolytic aluminum, and therefore pay more attention to the profit margin that aluminum oxide prices have brought to the electrolytic aluminum enterprises. It is believed that the price reduction of aluminum oxide will increase the investment value of electrolytic aluminum enterprises.
Another point of view pointed out that in the era of high alumina, the profit increase caused by each price reduction of aluminum oxide to electrolytic aluminum enterprises is considerable, but now the price of alumina is decreasing and is close to the production cost, and the domestic alumina production enterprises are generally producing. The cost is between RMB 2,000 and RMB 2,200 per ton. It is very difficult to extract profit from the price reduction of alumina if the market price is close to the cost price. Unless the alumina companies are fighting the price war regardless of cost, this is obviously not. Too much. For electrolytic aluminum companies, the future depends more on the trend of aluminum prices.
The changes in the profit restructuring price of the aluminum industry chain have brought shocks to the entire industry chain. The protagonists in the future of the aluminum industry may no longer be the “alumina-electrolytic aluminum†old friends, and the bauxite that extends upwards. The field of aluminum deep processing, which extends from mining and development, is expected to become the aluminum industry's profit center under the new pattern.
From the current situation of the industrial chain, the capacity bottleneck between electrolytic aluminum and alumina has been opened up, and the bottleneck of the entire industry is shifting towards bauxite. The large-scale production of alumina projects means a large demand for bauxite, and at present domestic Most alumina producers do not have matching bauxite mine resources. The fact that China's bauxite resources are lacking has enabled alumina companies to go abroad and use foreign alumina resources, so the price of bauxite is currently under revaluation.
The actual controller of S Guanghua (000703), Guo Yinghui of Henan Huilong Aluminum Industry Co., previously stated that its subsidiaries had previously planned to expand to aluminum aluminum oxide, which used to belong to the giant profits point, but now they are more aware that With the adjustment of national policies, the aluminum industry's profit center will gradually shift toward the two ends of the industrial chain—mines and deep-processing end products. Especially with the encouragement of technological progress and policies, the market and profit margin of aluminum terminal products will be opened.