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In the recent month, the pattern of higher aluminum prices and declining alumina prices continued to continue, and the profitability of electrolytic aluminum also hit a record high. The electrolytic aluminum company’s share price was strong and the second spring of electrolytic aluminum has come this year. After experiencing the madness of the first half of the year, non-ferrous metals have gradually become silent. When people no longer say that they have "colored," colored prices are just around the corner again. As of October 17, nickel, tin, zinc, lead and other metals After a record high of new innovations, London’s aluminum prices have also re-stabilized above US$2,700. Shanghai Aluminum’s national holiday has continued to jump upwards and has now exceeded 20,000 yuan/ton. This undoubtedly brought a strong stimulus to non-ferrous metal stocks, especially electrolytic aluminum profit growth has reached an unprecedented point, Jiaozuo Wanfang, Yun Aluminum shares and other companies have announced earnings growth forecast, the market trend, electrolytic aluminum company stock price strength is complete, The price of Jiaozuo Wanfang’s complex price quietly hit a new high, and Nanshan Industrial and Yunlu’s shares also approached the previous highs. The industry has predicted that the second spring of electrolytic aluminum has come.
Tons of aluminum profit hit a record high Since this year, the overall aluminum price has been oscillating and rising. After the price of alumina reached a historical high of 6,600 yuan/ton in March, with the dramatic increase in global alumina production capacity (especially China), Alumina began to appear to be in excess, especially as China's alumina production continued to increase rapidly, and the growth rate hit record highs. In August, China's alumina production continued to grow, with production reaching 1.171 million tons, an increase of 66.2% compared to the same period of the previous year and an increase of 3.1% compared with July. According to the August data, the annual alumina production in China has reached 13.79 million tons, which is an increase of 62% from the 8.51 million tons in 2005. The spot price that has been strong has finally come down since May. Since August, the spot alumina price has fallen even faster than most people expect. The domestic spot price has dropped to RMB 2,950/ton, which is a drop of 55% compared with the record high in March. In the recent month, the pattern of higher aluminum prices and declining alumina prices continued to rise, and the profitability of electrolytic aluminum also hit a record high. Currently, the industry’s average tons of aluminum profits exceeds RMB 6,000 (including tax), which is a historical comparison. Good level.
Alumina and VS spurred on the aluminum savage China's new production capacity with an astonishing production capacity, completely breaking the global alumina supply and demand pattern, and prompting the continued adoption of aluminum oxide for many years to enter a bear market cycle. Everbright Securities Hengkun’s newer forecast, 2006 The annual global metallurgical grade alumina will have an oversupply of 2.84 million tons. And the surplus will continue until 2008. At present, the total cost of domestic alumina production should not exceed 2,100 yuan/ton, which means that the current price of 2,950 yuan/ton is still significantly higher than that of domestic enterprises. Obviously, in order to curb the launch of new production capacity and at the same time reduce new investment in alumina, there is still room for further price cuts in the future. It is not ruled out that the price of alumina will drop below RMB 2,500/ton before the first quarter of next year. Shen Yun Wanguo analyst Ren Yunhe predicts that the final price floor will fall within the industry cost range (1500-2300 yuan/ton).
At the same time, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the future. It is expected that the supply and demand of the aluminum market will be basically balanced from 2006 to 2008, with a small global gap and a small surplus in China. In 2006, the global aluminum market will continue to experience a small supply gap. According to the forecast of Buckley Capital, the gap is 310,000 tons. From the supply point of view, Buckledge Capital predicts that global aluminum production will increase by 1.8 million tons (a 5.7% increase). Will contribute 1.1 million tons. From the perspective of demand, both the United States, Western Europe, Japan, and China have shown strong growth momentum. Although China's asset growth rate is expected to slow down, the rapid expansion of downstream aluminum processing materials has made domestic demand for primary aluminum still strong. It is expected that there will still be a small gap in the global aluminum market in 2007, and the aluminum fundamentals will be stronger in the coming year.
Who is the leader? ——Aluminum stock picking action In the electrolytic aluminum company, Everbright Securities Hengkun analysts recommend choosing high-quality companies in the industry according to the following points: 1) Obvious expansion of production capacity in the next two years; 2) Longer single alumina ratio Low, or low alumina single price; 3) better cost control. This includes lower electricity prices (or owning power plants), less integrated power consumption, and smaller personnel burden; 4) The product structure is relatively reasonable, and aluminum processing products account for a relatively high proportion. Yunlv shares (better than -2, target price of 9.6 yuan), Jiaozuo Wanfang (advantage-1, target price of 9.1 yuan), Nanshan Industrial (advantage-1, target price of 9.7 yuan), and Lanzhou Aluminum (advantage-1, The target price of 10.6 yuan, regardless of the share reform factor) and Baotou Aluminum (advantage-1, target price of 10.0 yuan) meet the above requirements.
1. Buy a company with a high proportion of spot alumina!
Aluminium prices and alumina prices have deviated significantly, making the profit margin of tons of aluminum as raw material for raw materials exceeds that of long-term raw materials. This is the first time since the alumina bull market in 2003, and this transition is historic, and in the future In the 2-3 years, the purchase of spot oxidized chloroaluminum will have an advantage. At present, the ranking of electrolytic spot aluminum listed companies from high to low is the order of Yunlu Aluminum, Zhongfu Industry, Baotou Aluminum, Guanlv Aluminum, and Lanzhou Aluminum. About 50% of Yunlv Aluminum's spot ratio is higher among them. , and the proportion will still increase! In addition, although Jiaozuo Wanfang currently has a high stock ratio, Jiaozhou Wanfang, Baotou Aluminum, and Lanzhou Aluminum, both of which are listed by Chinalco, have announced that they have signed a long-term alumina supply contract with Chinalco. The alumina supply for the year (as of the end of 2010) was all locked into long-term contracts. This means that even if the future spot alumina price is lower than the long-term contract price, the above electrolytic aluminum companies can not enjoy the benefits brought by the cost reduction by purchasing the spot.
2. Buy a company with a large future expansion rate!
The expansion of production capacity can fully enjoy the golden opportunity of the electrolytic aluminum industry. Among all electrolytic aluminum companies, Lanzhou Aluminum (600,296), which has maintained a significant increase in production in 2007 and 2008, has continued to grow. At the beginning of 2007, the company will have 150,000 tons of new capacity to put into production and its production capacity will double. The future will make a huge contribution to the performance of the company. In addition, Guanlv (000831) currently has a production capacity of 110,000 tons, and 49% of Huasheng's 200,000 tons of capacity has been put into operation in April this year. It is estimated that the output in 2006 will be 145,000 tons, which is equivalent to the company’s increase in production in 2006. 50%, the output in 2007 increased by about 100%. Also concerned about the potential for integration opportunities due to the high degree of correlation with Chinalco.
Electrolytic Aluminum Company's Earnings Forecast Assumption - Production Forecast 3. Buy a company with a captive power plant!
Each ton of electrolytic aluminum needs to consume about 15,000 kWh of electricity, so electrolytic aluminum is one of the high-energy-consuming industries, and the cost of electricity accounts for about 30% of the total cash production cost of electrolytic aluminum. At present, the electricity price level in the electrolytic aluminum industry in China is also at the high end of the world. After undergoing several upward adjustments, the average electricity price in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry in 2005 reached 0.305 yuan/kWh (excluding tax, approximately US$38/MWh). This is much higher than the levels of energy-rich regions such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, Canada, and the Middle East. Large domestic electrolytic aluminum plants are generally located in large energy provinces. The local government's support for electric aluminum enterprises stems from the hope that this type of energy storage, such as electrolytic aluminum, will try to avoid the diseconomy of the electricity generated on the Internet due to the difference between the grid price and the sales price of the national grid. An electrolytic aluminum company with its own power plant capable of supplying enough power should have more advantages. Among them, Lanzhou Aluminum's 3x300kw self-provided electricity is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2007, and the project is about to achieve conversion from input to output.
Key Aluminum Co., Ltd. Comments Yunlv Aluminum (000807): As a listed company with large actual electrolytic aluminum production in Shenzhen and Shanghai, the company still achieved good results in 2005 when the electrolytic aluminum industry was in trouble. The company and five other shareholders jointly initiated the development of bauxite resources in Wenshan Prefecture in Kunming. The proposed investment is 44 million yuan, which accounts for 55% of the registered capital, and it is the former largest shareholder. The project will use the existing world or national advanced production technology and technology to plan and build an annual output of 800,000 tons of alumina projects and supporting mine mining projects. At present, Wenshan Prefecture has proven reserves of 33.85 million tons of bauxite, and its follow-up reserves are still under exploration. Therefore, the advantages of bauxite resources are very obvious. At present, the proportion of alumina spot orders of the company is as high as 50%. Under the situation that the spot price of alumina has dropped rapidly, the rapid growth of the company's performance next year should be expected.
Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612): In 2006, the company planned to produce and sell aluminum ingots of no less than 021,300 tons. The main project of the company's 150,000-ton aluminum alloy project in the first phase of the project was completed, with a total investment of 323 million yuan. Conditions, the company will be put into operation as soon as possible according to market conditions. Before the transfer of shares in the company, Chinalco signed the alumina supply contract with the company. The alumina price of the contract was significantly lower than the alumina prices signed by Chinalco and other companies. It is expected that the company's EPS will reach 0.6 yuan in 2006, and the dynamic PE will be low.
Nanshan Industry (600219): In the share reform plan, the company promised that the annual compound annual growth rate of net profit in 2006 and 2007 should not be less than 30%. Otherwise, it will pursue the consideration of a total of 20 million yuan in cash. The total number of non-public issuances of Nanshan Industry to specific targets shall not exceed 70 million shares, among which the number of shares issued to the controlling shareholder Nanshan Group shall not be less than 71% of the number of shares issued by the company. Nanshan Group shall subscribe for shares through assets, and the total amount of funds raised this time. Approximately RMB 3.5 billion, all of which are used to acquire 75% of the shares held by Nanshan Group including Longkou Donghai Alumina Co., Ltd., 100,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and supporting carbons of Nanshan Group, 600,000 kilowatts of thermal power unit assets, and 75% of Yantai Donghai Aluminum Foil Co., Ltd. Aluminum and related assets including equity. Nanshan Industry currently produces alumina raw materials required for an annual output of 34,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, mainly from the supply of 50,000 tons of alumina that is signed with Shandong Aluminum once a year. With the rapid development of the automotive industry, construction industry, and packaging industry, the market demand for high-quality and high-precision aluminum alloys continues to expand. Through the introduction of advanced foreign equipment and control technology, Nanshan Industry has taken a leading position in its product quality and technology. The high-level aluminum alloy casting, multi-stand hot rolling equipment and high-precision aluminum alloy hot-rolled coil production line introduced by the company's convertible funds are expected to be put into production in the third quarter of this year, which will in turn add new profit growth points for Nanshan Industry. . Due to the company's long industrial chain and strong ability to withstand market risks, it is recommended that attention be paid.
Tons of aluminum profit hit a record high Since this year, the overall aluminum price has been oscillating and rising. After the price of alumina reached a historical high of 6,600 yuan/ton in March, with the dramatic increase in global alumina production capacity (especially China), Alumina began to appear to be in excess, especially as China's alumina production continued to increase rapidly, and the growth rate hit record highs. In August, China's alumina production continued to grow, with production reaching 1.171 million tons, an increase of 66.2% compared to the same period of the previous year and an increase of 3.1% compared with July. According to the August data, the annual alumina production in China has reached 13.79 million tons, which is an increase of 62% from the 8.51 million tons in 2005. The spot price that has been strong has finally come down since May. Since August, the spot alumina price has fallen even faster than most people expect. The domestic spot price has dropped to RMB 2,950/ton, which is a drop of 55% compared with the record high in March. In the recent month, the pattern of higher aluminum prices and declining alumina prices continued to rise, and the profitability of electrolytic aluminum also hit a record high. Currently, the industry’s average tons of aluminum profits exceeds RMB 6,000 (including tax), which is a historical comparison. Good level.
Alumina and VS spurred on the aluminum savage China's new production capacity with an astonishing production capacity, completely breaking the global alumina supply and demand pattern, and prompting the continued adoption of aluminum oxide for many years to enter a bear market cycle. Everbright Securities Hengkun’s newer forecast, 2006 The annual global metallurgical grade alumina will have an oversupply of 2.84 million tons. And the surplus will continue until 2008. At present, the total cost of domestic alumina production should not exceed 2,100 yuan/ton, which means that the current price of 2,950 yuan/ton is still significantly higher than that of domestic enterprises. Obviously, in order to curb the launch of new production capacity and at the same time reduce new investment in alumina, there is still room for further price cuts in the future. It is not ruled out that the price of alumina will drop below RMB 2,500/ton before the first quarter of next year. Shen Yun Wanguo analyst Ren Yunhe predicts that the final price floor will fall within the industry cost range (1500-2300 yuan/ton).
At the same time, aluminum prices are expected to remain strong in the future. It is expected that the supply and demand of the aluminum market will be basically balanced from 2006 to 2008, with a small global gap and a small surplus in China. In 2006, the global aluminum market will continue to experience a small supply gap. According to the forecast of Buckley Capital, the gap is 310,000 tons. From the supply point of view, Buckledge Capital predicts that global aluminum production will increase by 1.8 million tons (a 5.7% increase). Will contribute 1.1 million tons. From the perspective of demand, both the United States, Western Europe, Japan, and China have shown strong growth momentum. Although China's asset growth rate is expected to slow down, the rapid expansion of downstream aluminum processing materials has made domestic demand for primary aluminum still strong. It is expected that there will still be a small gap in the global aluminum market in 2007, and the aluminum fundamentals will be stronger in the coming year.
Who is the leader? ——Aluminum stock picking action In the electrolytic aluminum company, Everbright Securities Hengkun analysts recommend choosing high-quality companies in the industry according to the following points: 1) Obvious expansion of production capacity in the next two years; 2) Longer single alumina ratio Low, or low alumina single price; 3) better cost control. This includes lower electricity prices (or owning power plants), less integrated power consumption, and smaller personnel burden; 4) The product structure is relatively reasonable, and aluminum processing products account for a relatively high proportion. Yunlv shares (better than -2, target price of 9.6 yuan), Jiaozuo Wanfang (advantage-1, target price of 9.1 yuan), Nanshan Industrial (advantage-1, target price of 9.7 yuan), and Lanzhou Aluminum (advantage-1, The target price of 10.6 yuan, regardless of the share reform factor) and Baotou Aluminum (advantage-1, target price of 10.0 yuan) meet the above requirements.
1. Buy a company with a high proportion of spot alumina!
Aluminium prices and alumina prices have deviated significantly, making the profit margin of tons of aluminum as raw material for raw materials exceeds that of long-term raw materials. This is the first time since the alumina bull market in 2003, and this transition is historic, and in the future In the 2-3 years, the purchase of spot oxidized chloroaluminum will have an advantage. At present, the ranking of electrolytic spot aluminum listed companies from high to low is the order of Yunlu Aluminum, Zhongfu Industry, Baotou Aluminum, Guanlv Aluminum, and Lanzhou Aluminum. About 50% of Yunlv Aluminum's spot ratio is higher among them. , and the proportion will still increase! In addition, although Jiaozuo Wanfang currently has a high stock ratio, Jiaozhou Wanfang, Baotou Aluminum, and Lanzhou Aluminum, both of which are listed by Chinalco, have announced that they have signed a long-term alumina supply contract with Chinalco. The alumina supply for the year (as of the end of 2010) was all locked into long-term contracts. This means that even if the future spot alumina price is lower than the long-term contract price, the above electrolytic aluminum companies can not enjoy the benefits brought by the cost reduction by purchasing the spot.
2. Buy a company with a large future expansion rate!
The expansion of production capacity can fully enjoy the golden opportunity of the electrolytic aluminum industry. Among all electrolytic aluminum companies, Lanzhou Aluminum (600,296), which has maintained a significant increase in production in 2007 and 2008, has continued to grow. At the beginning of 2007, the company will have 150,000 tons of new capacity to put into production and its production capacity will double. The future will make a huge contribution to the performance of the company. In addition, Guanlv (000831) currently has a production capacity of 110,000 tons, and 49% of Huasheng's 200,000 tons of capacity has been put into operation in April this year. It is estimated that the output in 2006 will be 145,000 tons, which is equivalent to the company’s increase in production in 2006. 50%, the output in 2007 increased by about 100%. Also concerned about the potential for integration opportunities due to the high degree of correlation with Chinalco.
Electrolytic Aluminum Company's Earnings Forecast Assumption - Production Forecast 3. Buy a company with a captive power plant!
Each ton of electrolytic aluminum needs to consume about 15,000 kWh of electricity, so electrolytic aluminum is one of the high-energy-consuming industries, and the cost of electricity accounts for about 30% of the total cash production cost of electrolytic aluminum. At present, the electricity price level in the electrolytic aluminum industry in China is also at the high end of the world. After undergoing several upward adjustments, the average electricity price in the domestic electrolytic aluminum industry in 2005 reached 0.305 yuan/kWh (excluding tax, approximately US$38/MWh). This is much higher than the levels of energy-rich regions such as the Commonwealth of Independent States, Canada, and the Middle East. Large domestic electrolytic aluminum plants are generally located in large energy provinces. The local government's support for electric aluminum enterprises stems from the hope that this type of energy storage, such as electrolytic aluminum, will try to avoid the diseconomy of the electricity generated on the Internet due to the difference between the grid price and the sales price of the national grid. An electrolytic aluminum company with its own power plant capable of supplying enough power should have more advantages. Among them, Lanzhou Aluminum's 3x300kw self-provided electricity is expected to be completed and put into operation by the end of 2007, and the project is about to achieve conversion from input to output.
Key Aluminum Co., Ltd. Comments Yunlv Aluminum (000807): As a listed company with large actual electrolytic aluminum production in Shenzhen and Shanghai, the company still achieved good results in 2005 when the electrolytic aluminum industry was in trouble. The company and five other shareholders jointly initiated the development of bauxite resources in Wenshan Prefecture in Kunming. The proposed investment is 44 million yuan, which accounts for 55% of the registered capital, and it is the former largest shareholder. The project will use the existing world or national advanced production technology and technology to plan and build an annual output of 800,000 tons of alumina projects and supporting mine mining projects. At present, Wenshan Prefecture has proven reserves of 33.85 million tons of bauxite, and its follow-up reserves are still under exploration. Therefore, the advantages of bauxite resources are very obvious. At present, the proportion of alumina spot orders of the company is as high as 50%. Under the situation that the spot price of alumina has dropped rapidly, the rapid growth of the company's performance next year should be expected.
Jiaozuo Wanfang (000612): In 2006, the company planned to produce and sell aluminum ingots of no less than 021,300 tons. The main project of the company's 150,000-ton aluminum alloy project in the first phase of the project was completed, with a total investment of 323 million yuan. Conditions, the company will be put into operation as soon as possible according to market conditions. Before the transfer of shares in the company, Chinalco signed the alumina supply contract with the company. The alumina price of the contract was significantly lower than the alumina prices signed by Chinalco and other companies. It is expected that the company's EPS will reach 0.6 yuan in 2006, and the dynamic PE will be low.
Nanshan Industry (600219): In the share reform plan, the company promised that the annual compound annual growth rate of net profit in 2006 and 2007 should not be less than 30%. Otherwise, it will pursue the consideration of a total of 20 million yuan in cash. The total number of non-public issuances of Nanshan Industry to specific targets shall not exceed 70 million shares, among which the number of shares issued to the controlling shareholder Nanshan Group shall not be less than 71% of the number of shares issued by the company. Nanshan Group shall subscribe for shares through assets, and the total amount of funds raised this time. Approximately RMB 3.5 billion, all of which are used to acquire 75% of the shares held by Nanshan Group including Longkou Donghai Alumina Co., Ltd., 100,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum and supporting carbons of Nanshan Group, 600,000 kilowatts of thermal power unit assets, and 75% of Yantai Donghai Aluminum Foil Co., Ltd. Aluminum and related assets including equity. Nanshan Industry currently produces alumina raw materials required for an annual output of 34,000 tons of electrolytic aluminum, mainly from the supply of 50,000 tons of alumina that is signed with Shandong Aluminum once a year. With the rapid development of the automotive industry, construction industry, and packaging industry, the market demand for high-quality and high-precision aluminum alloys continues to expand. Through the introduction of advanced foreign equipment and control technology, Nanshan Industry has taken a leading position in its product quality and technology. The high-level aluminum alloy casting, multi-stand hot rolling equipment and high-precision aluminum alloy hot-rolled coil production line introduced by the company's convertible funds are expected to be put into production in the third quarter of this year, which will in turn add new profit growth points for Nanshan Industry. . Due to the company's long industrial chain and strong ability to withstand market risks, it is recommended that attention be paid.