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For the electrolytic aluminum industry, the Ministry of Finance’s recent adjustment of import and export tax rates can be described as “carrots and sticks.†On the one hand, the increase in export tariffs has increased export costs and helped increase domestic supply. On the other hand, alumina imports Lowering the tax rate will in turn reduce the cost of electrolytic aluminum and provide room for lowering product prices.
The result of the policy "combination boxing" is still unpredictable. Most industry insiders believe that the above positive or negative profitability will not have a material impact on the company's performance in the short term. However, some analysts have pointed out that since 2002, the rise and fall of upstream alumina and downstream electrolytic aluminum is the epitome of many industry cycles. In the ups and downs of the bauxite-alumina-electrolytic aluminum industry chain, the government’s industrial policy and market The impact of investment behavior, gains and losses are thought-provoking.
Tariff Adjustment Impact Limited The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on October 27 to adjust the tariff rates of some import and export commodities. Among them, the alumina import tariff was lowered from 5.5% to 3%, while the electrolytic aluminum export tariff was increased from 5% to 15%.
The policy intentions of the last one are very obvious. Zhou Ming, an analyst with Guotai Junan, believes that the move reflects the government's encouragement of imports of mineral resources products, while limiting the policy intention of exporting primary processed products and high energy-consuming products.
Judging from the policy effect, increasing the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum has had the opposite effect on the aluminum market at home and abroad. As a result of higher export costs, Shanghai Aluminum’s consecutive contracts fell from 21,340 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton in three trading days, a decrease of 4.4%, while LME aluminum rose by 1.2%. This has further widened the spread between the two markets.
According to the prediction of the professional agency Antaike, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China will reach 9.2 million tons this year, while the consumption is only 8.55 million tons. This means that the annual export must be about 650,000 tons to maintain the balance between supply and demand. Intuitively, an increase in the export tax rate will increase domestic supply and thus curb prices.
The result of the policy "combination boxing" is still unpredictable. Most industry insiders believe that the above positive or negative profitability will not have a material impact on the company's performance in the short term. However, some analysts have pointed out that since 2002, the rise and fall of upstream alumina and downstream electrolytic aluminum is the epitome of many industry cycles. In the ups and downs of the bauxite-alumina-electrolytic aluminum industry chain, the government’s industrial policy and market The impact of investment behavior, gains and losses are thought-provoking.
Tariff Adjustment Impact Limited The Ministry of Finance issued a notice on October 27 to adjust the tariff rates of some import and export commodities. Among them, the alumina import tariff was lowered from 5.5% to 3%, while the electrolytic aluminum export tariff was increased from 5% to 15%.
The policy intentions of the last one are very obvious. Zhou Ming, an analyst with Guotai Junan, believes that the move reflects the government's encouragement of imports of mineral resources products, while limiting the policy intention of exporting primary processed products and high energy-consuming products.
Judging from the policy effect, increasing the export tariff of electrolytic aluminum has had the opposite effect on the aluminum market at home and abroad. As a result of higher export costs, Shanghai Aluminum’s consecutive contracts fell from 21,340 yuan/ton to 20,400 yuan/ton in three trading days, a decrease of 4.4%, while LME aluminum rose by 1.2%. This has further widened the spread between the two markets.
According to the prediction of the professional agency Antaike, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China will reach 9.2 million tons this year, while the consumption is only 8.55 million tons. This means that the annual export must be about 650,000 tons to maintain the balance between supply and demand. Intuitively, an increase in the export tax rate will increase domestic supply and thus curb prices.