Export Tariff Raises Sharpness and Shanghai Aluminum Funds Withdraw Largely

Yesterday, the news that China's export tariffs on electrolytic aluminum increased sharply caused a strong reaction from the domestic futures market. The aluminum price dropped sharply on the Shanghai Futures Exchange (hereinafter referred to as the “Schedule”) and the funds began to withdraw. Open interest appeared in May of this year. The first major reduction since.

On Friday, China’s Ministry of Finance announced that since November 1st, the export duty of electrolytic aluminum will have been increased from 5% to 15%, while the import duty on alumina has been reduced from 5.5% to 3%. Since China is a net exporter of electrolytic aluminum, the average monthly net export has reached about 40,000 tons in the past 9 months.

Analysts believe that this policy will cause China's electrolytic aluminum exports to significantly reduce, which will support the international market aluminum prices, while the domestic aluminum prices may be subject to increased supply pressure, resulting in domestic and international aluminum prices to diverge from the market.

Yesterday, the aluminum prices in the previous period showed a trend of a weaker and stronger trend. The four contracts from November to February of this year saw a larger decline. The contract price fell by more than 700 yuan, of which the contract fell by 820 yuan in December of this year. , reported 20360 yuan, the main contract in January next year fell 770 yuan, reported 20190 yuan. Changes in positions held by aluminum have shown a pattern of sharply lightening up the market in recent months and slightly increasing the value of warehouses in the distant future. From November this year to January next year, the contract positions of the three contracts decreased by about 13,000 hands, and the number of contracts decreased by 9,786 contracts. Shanghai aluminum futures positions have been reduced in such a large scale. This is the first time since May this year.

"Yesterday, the substantial decrease in Shanghai aluminum futures positions indicates that some long funds have been rapidly withdrawn from the aluminum market. Some of these funds were previously involved in cross-market arbitrage funds. These funds were used to buy domestic aluminum futures and sell the London Metal Exchange ( The arbitrage trading of LME aluminum. The adjustment of China's electrolytic aluminum export tariffs has caused this part of the funds to lose arbitrage."

The Manager of Shanghai East Asia Futures Information Department pointed out to the former Financial Daily that “the withdrawal of funds from Shanghai Aluminum Futures Market in another part is a promising outlook for international aluminum futures prices. Prior to this, the correlation between domestic and international aluminum price trends was high. Many institutions in the market are very optimistic about the expectations of aluminum, so these funds can buy Shanghai aluminum in the case of not participating in the international market.However, the adjustment of export tariffs has caused short-term fundamental differences between domestic and international aluminum markets, LME The aluminum price and the aluminum price trend in Shanghai were exactly the opposite. This part of the fund chose to withdraw and wait.”

The position changes announced in the previous period yesterday showed that aluminum 0612 contracts and 0701 contracts are relatively concentrated on long-term lightening, while short-term lightening is relatively decentralized. Among them, the top 20 positions in the 0612 contract position were lightened by 1757 positions, the top 20 short positions in the contract increased by 19 hands; the top 20 positions in the 0701 contract position were lightened by 1245 hands, and the top 20 short positions in the contract were found. A substantial increase of 2386 hands.

"From the perspective of changes in positions, the long-term position is relatively firm. In the next few trading days, the bulls may also take the initiative to reduce their positions in response to changes in export tariff policies, which will cause aluminum prices A certain amount of pressure." Lu Yuming said.

Pang Ying, manager of Minmetals Futures Research Department, pointed out that the increase in the export tax for primary aluminum will have a significant impact on the supply and demand at home and abroad in the short term, and the spot market will be more adequate. However, the export tax rates for aluminum and aluminum products have not changed. In the future, electrolytic aluminum will be exported in the form of aluminum processing materials and aluminum products. In the long term, the impact of changes in the tax rate of primary aluminum will gradually be eliminated. Yesterday, the decline in the futures contract price of aluminum futures in Shanghai was significantly lower than that in the previous month, which is a reflection of this fundamental.