Aluminium Market Regulates Regulatory Pressure

Aluminium Market Regulatory Pressures Regulatory Pressure The news that domestic aluminum market export tax rebates have been reduced to zero has oscillated after a period of calm, and it is reported that in addition to canceling export tax rebates, the state will impose another 5% tax on export companies. And strictly control the production of alumina feed processing, encourage general trade. If this is the case, future domestic policy factors will largely influence the domestic aluminum price trend and the future development of the domestic aluminum market. Since the second quarter of this year, the Chinese government has stepped up its macro-control efforts. After a period of rectification, the electrolytic aluminum industry has achieved certain results, but the output is still increasing, but demand is due to macro-control, automotive and real estate industries, etc. The consumption may experience a certain degree of decline, and the domestic oversupply situation is serious. The aluminum plant has a strong response to the country's decision to cancel the export tax rebate. However, the author believes that the regulation of the aluminum industry is still not over. The control of production capacity is still far from achieving the target. The possibility of canceling export tax rebates is quite high, but the actual implementation time is estimated to be after the end of the year. Considering comprehensively that the country is more likely to cancel the export tax rebate for aluminum ingots, it is less likely to impose a tariff of around 5% on exporting aluminum ingots. The cancellation of export tax rebates will have a greater impact on the domestic market: First, the domestic and foreign exchange rates have further contracted. Since the export tax rebate rate is reduced to zero, according to the foreign exchange rate ratio formula, the RMB exchange rate ÷ [1-(1-return rate) × tax rebate rate], the internal and external exchange rate is actually the exchange rate of the yuan, which is about 8.30. Second, the pattern of external strength and weakness is expected to continue. After the cancellation of export tax rebates, the cost of aluminum ingot exports by manufacturers will undoubtedly be greatly increased, which means that profits will be greatly reduced. Therefore, domestic and foreign parity will be readjusted to a new balance (ie 8.30 calculated earlier). If the price is relatively high, domestic producers will try to reduce their domestic sales. Otherwise, the low price will attract domestic producers to export aluminum ingots. At present, domestic and foreign prices remain at around 9.00 (forward contracts). If the export tax rebate rate drops to zero, excessively high prices will make it difficult for domestic aluminum ingots to export. After all, profits have fallen significantly. Therefore, for a considerable period of time after the cancellation of the export tax rebate policy, a large reduction in domestic exports may prompt the international aluminum price to go out of the strong uptrend market, while domestic aluminum prices will continue to seek downward support due to the heavy spot pressure. In other words, the pattern of external strength and weakness will continue for a long time. Third, the domestic spot pressure is even heavier. Theoretically, the export of general trade, after canceling the export tax rebate, the profit reduction can be calculated according to the formula of export price × 8%, and for the manufacturer who re-exports raw material processing and processing, the reduced profits of enterprises can be based on (Aluminum ingot export price × RMB exchange rate - import alumina price × alumina usage × RMB exchange rate) × 7% formula is calculated. In other words, reducing the export tax rebate rate to zero will cause domestic producers to seek to sell aluminum ingots domestically until domestic and foreign price reductions refer to a more reasonable water level before they can attract exports. Therefore, after the cancellation of export tax rebates, the spot pressure in the domestic aluminum market will become even heavier, and spot prices may continue to slump. Fourth, domestic aluminum plants will face a reshuffle. The cancellation of the export tax rebate will undoubtedly make the domestic spot pressure become heavier, and the production and operation of domestic aluminum plants will face enormous difficulties. Some lagging technological and management levels and aluminum plants whose business philosophy cannot keep up with the situation will be forced to close down or even close down in the brutal competition in the market, and they will be eliminated by the ruthlessness of the market. And some companies with strong strengths, advanced technology and business philosophy will be aggressive in the face of adversity. Through restructuring, acquisitions and mergers and other initiatives to complete the qualitative transformation, it will become more and more powerful. Therefore, although the adjustment of the export tax rebate policy will cause pain to the Chinese aluminum industry in the short term, it will have a negative impact on the production and operation of the company. However, in the long run, it will be beneficial to the healthy development of the domestic aluminum industry and enhance the company’s comprehensive competitiveness. Source: China Securities News