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In order to strictly control the export of high-polluting, high-energy-consuming electrolytic aluminum, in August 2005, the state listed aluminum oxide raw materials for electrolytic aluminum production as a catalogue of prohibited products of processing trade. Affected by this, in the first three quarters of this year, China’s alumina imports still showed a declining trend, but there has been a clear sign of recovery in the third quarter. According to customs statistics, in the first three quarters, China imported 5.262 million tons of alumina, a decrease of 1.5% from the same period of last year (the same below), and the amount was 2.42 billion US dollars, an increase of 27.2%. Among them, 1.93 million tons were imported in the third quarter, an increase of 18%. Due to the strong rebound in alumina imports in the third quarter, the cumulative decline in imports in the first three quarters narrowed by 8.7 percentage points from the first half. Its main features are:
First, the import of general trade and bonded warehouses has accelerated. In the first three quarters, China's general trade imported 3.571 million tons of alumina, an increase of 26.3%; bonded warehouse imports 14.52 million tons, an increase of 22.4%, an increase of 9.2 and 15.9 percentage points over the first half. In the same period, processing trade imported 150,000 tons, a sharp drop of 87.9%.
Second, foreign-invested enterprises have multiplied. In the first three quarters, China's foreign-invested enterprises imported 1.193 million tons of alumina, an increase of 1.1 times, accounting for 22.7% of the total imports from the same period last year, 10.5%. At the same time, state-owned enterprises imported 3.578 million tons, a decrease of 10.1%.
Third, imports from Jiangsu, Shandong, and Ningxia increased significantly. In the first three quarters, the three provinces (regions) of Jiangsu, Shandong, and Ningxia maintained high-speed growth in the overall decline in national alumina imports. The above three provinces (regions) totaled 1.825 million tons, an increase of 81.1%. Of which, Jiangsu imported 702,000 tons, an increase of 43.9%; Shandong 6.33 million tons, an increase of 2.6 times; Ningxia 490,000 tons, an increase of 42.2%.
Fourth, the average price of imports fell in the third quarter. In the first three quarters, the average price of alumina imports in China was US$460.3/ton, up 29.1%. Prices began to decline month by month in the third quarter. By September, the average import price was 392.7 U.S. dollars per ton, which was nearly 40% lower than the peak in June.
The recent drop in alumina prices and the strong aluminum prices have led to an increase in the profit margin of the electrolytic aluminum industry and led to a rapid rebound in the investment in electrolytic aluminum, which has led to a significant increase in alumina imports. As of late September this year, the spot price of alumina on the international market fell to 240 US dollars / ton, compared with the first quarter of this year fell more than 60%, the domestic market prices also fell 50% higher than this year's peak, and in September the average price of China's electrolytic aluminum exports 2483.7 US dollars / ton, up 26.1% over January. Driven by huge profits, it is estimated that China's electrolytic aluminum production capacity will reach 900,000 tons this year.
The recovery of upstream raw material alumina imports is the result of the support of the investment in the electrolytic aluminum industry. In order to consolidate the effects of macroeconomic regulation and control and promote the orderly development of the electrolytic aluminum industry, it is suggested that the access threshold for the electrolytic aluminum market should be strictly enforced, and inspections and cleanups should be intensified in key areas to prevent the spread of blind investment construction and avoid a new round of alumina prices. Great fluctuations.