The new energy strategy adds "tighten" and "push" to the photovoltaic market

According to media reports, the "12th Five-Year Plan" for the development of strategic emerging industries has entered the stage of soliciting opinions, and the pace of development is approaching. As one of the seven strategic emerging industries, New Energy will focus on the four major industries of nuclear power, wind power, solar energy and biomass energy in future development. Among them, the installed capacity of solar and biomass power generation is basically determined, namely 10 million kilowatts and 13 million kilowatts respectively in the next five years. The industry believes that the development of the new energy industry will bring substantial benefits to related industries. This column is based on the recent industrial hot spots, comprehensive security securities, Gao Hua Securities and other securities companies to make an actual analysis of the market, make this group of in-depth interpretation for reference.

A Industrial Hot Spot The domestic photovoltaic market is about to start On August 1st, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the “Notice on Perfecting the On-grid Electricity Tariff Policy of Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation”, and pointed out that the construction was approved before July 1, 2011 and completed and put into production on December 31, 2011. For solar photovoltaic power generation projects with approved prices, the on-grid tariff is uniformly approved at 1.15 yuan (including tax) per kilowatt-hour; solar photovoltaic power generation projects approved on or after July 1, 2011, and approved before July 1, 2011, but as of 2011 The photovoltaic power generation projects that were not yet completed and put into operation on December 31, 2008, except that Tibet still implemented the on-grid tariff of 1.15 yuan per kilowatt-hour, the on-grid tariffs of other provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) were all implemented at 1 yuan per kilowatt-hour. In the future, the NDRC will make timely adjustments based on factors such as changes in investment costs and technological progress.

analysis:

The expectation of photovoltaic electricity prices has been long-standing, which is considered to be a landmark event for the start-up of the domestic photovoltaic market. However, most of them believed that they may be introduced next year, and the announcement is now exceeding expectations. According to the analysis, the government’s move was on the one hand because PV modules have reached the target of about 1 yuan per kWh after continuous price reductions. On the other hand, it also shows that the industry hopes to start the domestic market as soon as possible in the sluggish foreign market. Appeal.

The system installed cost in the western region is between RMB 16 and RMB 18. If the debt interest rate is 5.5%, the equivalent peak hour is 2000 hours, and the electricity price is RMB 1.15, then the project yield for the 25-year period can reach 17%. It is more attractive.

Judging from the content of the policies that have been announced, the on-grid tariff is higher than the part of the local price, and the renewable energy price will be added. At present, China's electricity consumption is about 4 trillion kWh, according to the current 4 PCT per kilowatt-hour electricity price additional standard, it can receive about 10 billion yuan a year. If 30% subsidy of PV is used, it can subsidize more than 4GW per year. It is forecasted that there will be 1.4-1.5 GW of new equipment installed this year, about 3 GW next year, and possibly 5 GW in the next year. These quantities will not be subject to subsidy restrictions.

According to the analysis, the impact of this policy on the domestic PV industry is different, and inverters, system installers and equipment manufacturers will benefit even more.

Analysts said that the announcement of photovoltaic power prices is very beneficial to the long-term development of the industry, but the level of interest in the photovoltaic industry in the next two years is not the same. Taking into account the two effective markets in Europe and China, the increase in the number of companies in China may still be relatively small next year, which will be more beneficial to companies with brand and scale effects.

Therefore, the policy will provide a certain degree of benefit to the component factories, and inverters, system installers and equipment manufacturers will benefit even more. The majority of domestic inverter manufacturers and system installers are small in size, and the domestic market is a reality and a big cake that is easier to obtain. The domestic market's start-up has a huge and direct effect on its pull; in addition, the expected turnaround makes Dachang’s willingness to expand production has been strengthened and strengthened, and demand for equipment will continue to grow.

Under the backdrop of over-expectation of policy support and corporate shipments may continue to take place in August-October, the photovoltaic sector as a whole is expected to usher in a new wave of rising prices.

B industry hot nuclear power technology has achieved substantial breakthroughs 1. The Ministry of Science and Technology recently announced the "National Twelfth Five-Year Plan for Scientific and Technological Development" and confirmed the inclusion of large-scale advanced pressurized water reactors and high-temperature gas-cooled reactor nuclear power plants in major national science and technology projects. The Ministry of Finance’s official website recently issued the “Circular on Adjusting the Import Tax Policies for Major Generations of Technical Equipment, including Third-Generation Nuclear Power Generation Units”, stating that in accordance with the regulations of relevant competent authorities, tariffs and import value-added tax will be exempted for key components such as third-generation nuclear power plants. According to another source, the State Council has initially approved a set of reconstruction plans, that is, the second-generation nuclear power plants that have already been constructed for initial construction will be completely rebuilt and used third-generation nuclear power technologies, especially projects that have not yet cast concrete, and all have been changed to build third-generation nuclear power plants.

analysis:

Large-scale advanced pressurized water reactors are listed in major projects, and nuclear power technology investment has not been reduced. Among the large-scale advanced pressurized water reactor technologies currently under development, CAP1400 has been developed on the basis of AP1000 technology, and CN1000 has developed two types of AP1000 and CPR 1000. The reactor type ACP1000 is under development. The large-scale advanced pressurized water reactor is included in the major national science and technology projects, further clarifying the strategic status of nuclear power and the localization of nuclear power.

The conversion of the technology route will benefit long-term AP1000 equipment suppliers. According to the report, the unification of nuclear circuit lines will facilitate the concentration of domestic technology and nuclear power equipment can achieve large-scale production. China's first- and second-tier heavy-duty equipment with the most output of AP1000 equipment will be the first to benefit. Shanghai Electric and Dongfang Electric, with AP1000 equipment sub-contracting qualifications, will benefit long after nuclear power projects are re-approved.

2. Public information revealed that China’s first experimental fast reactor, which caused a fission reaction by fast neutrons, has been successfully connected to the grid for power generation. The comprehensive realization of the major national project of the “863” Plan marked a major breakthrough in the fast reactor technology that has been included in the state-of-the-art technology development plan for medium and long-term science and technology. This also marks an important step in China’s occupation of nuclear technology and the establishment of a sustainable advanced nuclear energy system.

analysis:

The fast reactor not only solves the dual problems of *resources and spent fuel, but also the technology itself is a fourth-generation nuclear power plant. Its safety performance has been greatly improved and it is expected to be promoted after commercialization. After the Fukushima nuclear accident in Japan, the outside world questioned the development of China's nuclear power, but the investment in technology research and development of the nuclear power industry has not decreased, the localization process of the three generations of the A P1000 has accelerated, and the major special project CA P1400 R&D has been carried out and listed in the “National” In the “12th Five-Year Plan for Science and Technology Development”, the fourth-generation nuclear power plant smoothly connected to the grid, and the nuclear power industry has not stopped developing.

*Resources are the "food" of nuclear power plants. As countries around the world have been revitalizing nuclear power, people are gradually starting to worry about the sustainability of resources. The price of international resources has skyrocketed. * Limited reserves of resources have once become a bottleneck in the development of nuclear power.

Fast reactors are based on spent fuel from pressurized water reactors. The utilization ratio of the resources we use to operate the reactors is only 1%. After a single "burning," not only a large number of * are still present, but also there is a higher fission value. The production of nuclide can be recycled.

Breakthroughs in fast reactor technology will enable China to have complete technical conditions for a closed loop of nuclear fuel.* The utilization rate of resources has increased 60-fold to 60%, and the volume and disposal time of radioactive waste in spent fuel have also been significantly reduced. Significantly reduced the difficulty and cost of spent fuel treatment.

Analysts believe that the realization of this technology will change people's expectations of the shortage of resources, and the prices of international mines will also be rational. At the same time, this technology also reduces the community’s concerns about the disposal of radioactive waste. The rapid development of nuclear power in the world will no longer be limited by *resources. The breakthrough in this technology has formed a positive effect on the development of the nuclear power industry, and has caused some pressure on overseas companies that have acquired resources.

The approval of the C industry hotspot wind power was formally incorporated into the national unified plan as the first loop to tighten the approval of local wind power projects. The first batch of 26 million kilowatt projects under the national unified plan has been issued to various places. The 26 million kilowatts project planned this time was approved by the National Energy Administration and is scheduled to be completed by 2012. In addition, the local approval projects will not be included in the unified grid-connected planning and will no longer enjoy the additional subsidies for renewable energy prices.

This development plan has also become part of the forthcoming "Administrative Measures for the Development and Construction of Wind Farms." The "Measures" also proposes a series of technical specifications for wind farms from the preliminary preparation and later operation management.

analysis:

For the future development of the wind power industry, analysts believe that wind farms are better than equipment manufacturers. The recovery of equipment manufacturers depends on the development of wind farms. In the current situation, manufacturers of wind farms and wind turbines are increasingly divided. For wind turbine manufacturers, the gross profit margin and average sales price of their products will further decline by 15%, 11%, and 4% in 2011, 2012, and 2013. They are still indirectly providing operating capital for wind farms. It is expected that the fundamentals of these companies will not be stabilized before the middle of 2012, so the purchase of equipment stocks is not currently recommended.

According to the analysis, wind farms with a sizeable size will benefit from: more controllable grid-connected improvements brought about by the increase in installed capacity of wind power; improvements in wind turbine technology and stability; reduction in construction and operating costs; and regional diversification of wind farms. More stable cash flow; long-term overseas expansion.

In view of this, successful wind power equipment manufacturers need to use the above trends to optimize inventory and capacity utilization, have independent and reliable fan technology, balance the price reduction and extend the warranty period, and provide equipment suitable for different wind conditions. Establish a joint venture with a wind farm to invest in overseas markets.

From January to May this year, China had 4.1GW of fan capacity connected to the grid, an increase of 33% compared to the same period last year. This is because the cooperation between wind farms and the grid has been strengthened; more wind turbines are installed in East China and South China, and the grid connection in these regions is generally not There are big problems and the demand for wind power is also stronger. China is planning a concession tender for the second round of offshore wind farms with a total installed capacity of 1.5-2 GW. Analysts are concerned that bidders are eager to compete for market share and that profit margins have fallen below the average. The competition for fan capacity may push wind turbine manufacturers to increase their R&D capabilities, but it will also make them overlook the improvement of existing product quality.