"Diesel shortage" has not dispersed domestic refined oil prices or has made a comeback

The recent international crude oil price rebounded in stages, driving the expected resumption of domestic refined oil prices. Experts believe that the current price adjustment of domestic refined oil products is still full of uncertainty. Worrying is that once the increase in oil prices is expected, it may exacerbate the market's reluctance to sell, which is not conducive to the domestic "diesel shortage".

Since May of this year, international oil prices have changed the prices of unilateral gains in the previous four months. New York WTI crude oil prices fell below the 80-mark mark. Since the end of October, the U.S. economic recovery has been better than expected, and the European debt crisis has continued to make progress. Venture investment funds have become more active and pushed up oil prices. On November 15th, New York's WTI crude oil price reached US$99.37/barrel, approaching the one-hundred-dollar mark.

The rebound in international oil prices has caused the price adjustment of domestic refined oil products to receive further attention. On October 9th, China lowered the price of processed oil for the first time to give consumers some comfort. However, only a month or so later, the price increase window for refined oil products may come again, causing people to worry about whether domestic oil prices will “rebound”.

Energy Research Institute predicts that by the 15th, the change rate of crude oil in the three places has reached 3.58%, approaching the red line of 4%.

Analysts said that if Brent’s oil price stays above US$112/barrel, the rate of change in crude oil in the three places may exceed 4% in late November, and the domestic refined oil price increase window may start again. Of course, after the opening of the oil price increase window, the country will often not immediately adjust the price, and the official price adjustment is expected to be delayed until December.

Although it is still unknown whether the price adjustment window for refined oil products can eventually be opened, it may be worthy of caution if the expected psychological effects are raised.

An oil expert from China Petroleum Planning Institute stated that the refined oil wholesale market is highly sensitive to the news. Once the upward adjustment is expected in the market, speculation will increase, and intermediate traders in the circulation of refined oil products may take the opportunity to purchase goods and wait for sales to go up, which will adversely affect the domestic "diesel shortage".

According to statistics, as of November 11, the national wholesale price of No. 0 diesel was 8,485 yuan/ton, which was 255 yuan/ton higher than the domestic retail maximum retail price limit. Its monitoring of nearly 300 social oil stations across the country showed that on November 11th, only 54% of the social oil stations could guarantee normal sales, and 16% of the social oil stations still had broken fuel.

Jiangxi Hongfu Enterprise Co., Ltd. is engaged in the operation of gas stations and the distribution and transportation of refined products. The chairman of the company, Liu Jingxun, contacted the “oil source” in private companies in Shandong in the past few days. He said that he has been unable to get into oil for several months and has been eating “always”.

On November 14, the Ministry of Commerce issued guidance on the development of the oil circulation industry during the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan” period. The comments pointed out that gradually exploring the establishment of a national network of refined oil inventories monitoring network to guide the oil circulation enterprises to establish a commercial oil product storage system, localities can be combined with the actual situation of the region to explore the establishment of local diesel reserves.

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China National Huachen Energy Group Co., Ltd. , http://www.chc-chem.com

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