In 2012, the fat market in Fei City was thin?

Sinochem New Network News In 2011, the overall market for chemical fertilizers in China was poor and the performance of various varieties varied. How is the fat market trend in 2012? All kinds of fertilizers?

* The yellow production capacity surged in 2011, and domestic yellow prices fluctuate. In the first quarter, when the annual holiday ended and the external market continued to rise, traders believed that the current month would see an upsurge of purchase after the Spring Festival and a clear intention to increase the quotation. From the second quarter onwards, the price of *yellow has soared. In the medium term, the downstream buyers began to hesitate to purchase, and the yellow price began to decline. In the third quarter, the overall turnover of the domestic yellow market was slightly flat. Since the fourth quarter, the debt crisis in Europe has spread, and domestic demand for yellow has been declining, making it difficult for prices to rise again.

In 2011, China*s yellow production capacity has reached 6.8 million tons. Due to raw material reasons, the actual output is about 4 million tons, the output has increased by more than 10% year-on-year, the import volume has shrunk by 10%, and domestic apparent consumption has increased slightly to 13 million. About tons. China's domestic * yellow supply area is relatively scattered, * yellow manufacturers throughout the country refineries and natural gas purification plant. In 2012, new production capacity is expected to increase in terms of refining, and the corresponding production capacity of the yellow recycling plant will exceed 1 million tons/year. If both are put into operation in 2012, China*s yellow production capacity is expected to exceed 9 million tons/year, and actual output is expected to reach 4.5 million tons/year. China's external dependence on Huang will continue to decline and it will drop to 55% by 2015.

It is expected that the price of domestic yellow metal will begin to enter the market in 2011 from the low-to-medium price level of the price of yellow in 2011. Although the import of yellow tariffs was reduced in 2012, it will not have much impact on the operation of traders. The fertilization in spring 2012 will be an opportunity for the rise in the price of yellow oil, followed by the peak period of fertilizer exports. With the same export tariffs on fertilizers, the domestic price of yellow may be pushed up again. The late yellow price may enter the consolidation phase to prepare for winter storage in the fourth quarter of 2012. Although the winter storage fertilizer in the fourth quarter is a strong support for the recovery of domestic yellow price, it is difficult to guarantee that the sales of chemical fertilizers will be sluggish in 2011. In addition, domestic * yellow prices are the destabilizing factors of domestic yellow prices. However, in the recent few years when the import volume is far greater than the domestic production, the impact of domestic* yellow prices is still limited.

The trend of nitrogen fertilizer is uncertain. In the first quarter of 2011, the fertilization period in the first quarter of 2011 was constrained by the severe cold weather. The fertiliser area was dispersed and the time was extended. The fertilizer market for nitrogen fertilizer was used in the tepid market. In the second quarter, the issue of low energy-saving and emission-reduction, export surges, high prices, and the inability of the Dongkuo to successfully carry out the remaining low social inventory problems were exposed. In the peak season for fertilizer use in the northeast, the original fertilizer preparation period was not carried out due to the above reasons. In the third and fourth quarter, prices fluctuate frequently, and the downtrend market is favorably supported in many ways. The unpredictable market conditions in 2011 are difficult to understand and will continue to lay a foundation for the 2012 market.

A brief analysis of the market trend in 2012.

1. Supply and demand side: From the winter of 2011 to the spring of 2012, the domestic urea resources were 30.81 million tons. Among them, the output from October to December 2011 was 13.3 million tons and exports were 1,087,000 tons. From January to April 2012, the output was 18.6 million tons. Together with the end of September carryover of 5.38 million tons of stocks, a total of 36.18 million tons of urea supply. The total demand for the same period was 31.65 million tons, and the supply and demand of urea was basically balanced.

2. Cost side: In 2011, the cost of the domestic urea industry continued to be high and coal prices remained high. In January 2012, the coal price of urea enterprises under Jinmei Coal and Yangmei Coal Co., Ltd. was raised by RMB 100-120/ton, and the cost was increased by RMB 100/ton. At the same time, the average selling price of electricity in most provinces will increase by 3 cents, and the cost will increase by at least 30 yuan/ton. The pressure brought by the cost will always plague enterprises, reduce their profit margins, exacerbate competition in the industry, and promote the establishment of a mechanism for the survival of the fittest among enterprises.

3. Adjustment of fertilizer structure: At present, traditional urea is gradually weakening its position in the heart of dealers due to unstable market conditions, transparent prices, unprotected markets, and low profits. New urea and high-nitrogen compound fertilizers are increasingly being influenced by retailers. The favor. In addition, the focus of China's later period is to reduce nitrogen and phosphorus and increase potassium, and soil testing and formula fertilization will reduce the amount of urea.

4. Tariffs: In 2012, the urea tariff policy was basically the same as in 2011, but clearly stipulating that the benchmark price does not include tax, and reducing the export threshold in disguise would be a long-term positive for 2012.

Taken together, the first quarter of 2012, the company’s game continues, due to the extension of the use of fertilizers to extend the period, the main domestic urea mainstream prevailing consolidation, the frequency of quarterly fluctuations. The new equipment is expected to play a role in the second quarter, coupled with the short-term domestic demand there will be flat and export is blocked, the initial price may drop sharply. Later, with the start of the fertilizer market in Northeast China, low inventory will still trigger a price war, and the local market will again rise.

Phosphate fertilizer is more rational. In 2011, the price change of monoammonium phosphate was mainly reflected in four periods and three fluctuations. The four periods are spring plowing, May-June, autumn sowing-export, and the fourth quarter. The three fluctuations correspond to spring plowing, May-June, autumn sowing-export. In the three fluctuations, the price of monoammonium was higher than a wave and showed a step-like rise. The development of diammonium was mainly in two periods. It rose moderately from one to three quarters, and it gradually recovered after a one-off adjustment in the fourth quarter.

In 2012, the market price changes and trends of ammonium phosphate will be more rational, and one ammonium volatility will be more pronounced than diammonium. The price of mono-ammonium is more varied as the demand changes. Diammonium oscillated slightly and the main line steadily rose.

The following four factors affect the 2012 ammonium phosphate market. Domestic demand, foreign exports, raw materials, and agricultural and sideline products. Domestic demand has determined that the price of ammonium phosphate will rise at a high level; price reflections will generally be reflected in February-March, 8-10 months; exports will make market prices stable in June-September. Since the 2012 policy facilitates exports, the price of ammonium phosphate is expected to rise in the period when fertilizers and exports overlap in the fall. During the rest of the time, the ammonium phosphate concentrates mainly in the following line.

The price of raw materials is expected to be high in 2012, and phosphate ore is at a relatively high level. Although yellow is expected to decline, it will not experience a significant drop from 2008 to 2009, and the overall cost will still have some support. This has limited the room for ammonium phosphate prices to decline. In 2012, under the constraints of the overall weakness of agricultural prices and the control of state policies, it is expected that terminal farmers will not accept too high prices. With the impact of excess supply and demand, ammonium phosphate prices will not exceed 2011 points in 2012.

In 2012, the price difference between monoammonium and diammonium was reasonable, ranging from RMB 400 to RMB 500/ton.

The trend of the compound fertilizer market is clear, “the busy season is not prosperous, and the off-season is not light”, which is the best description of the fertilizer market in the past year. In 2011, the price of compound fertilizer in the country was not in the range of fluctuations, and it was in a state of high operation throughout the year. The price of compound fertilizers for the whole year is 2650 yuan to 3,000 yuan/ton. Today, the homogenization trend in the compound fertilizer market is getting weaker and weaker, the characteristics of consumer products of compound fertilizers are becoming more and more obvious. Everyone is paying more and more attention to the strength of the brand.

Due to the high price of compound fertilizers in 2011, there was no significant progress in light storage from October to November. The annual shipment to the northeast is at least 60% before the year. Due to the early Chinese New Year in 2012, December entered the critical period of light storage. As of December 31, 2011, the storage and storage enterprises have accumulatively transferred more than 18.8 million tons of chemical fertilizers, including 11.1 million tons of urea, and more than 16.7 million tons of chemical fertilizers, including about 9 million tons of urea. The original increase in electricity prices had a positive effect on stimulating distributors and goods, but it was counterproductive. After the increase in the price of raw materials, compound fertilizers were correspondingly active. Each leading compound fertilizer manufacturer raised prices one after another, and the increase ranged from 50 yuan to 100 yuan per ton. However, this move not only did not stimulate the desire of the dealers to buy, but on the market more wait-and-see mood is more sent to the Northeast source of less than 40%.

Analysis of the reasons for the above review: Today's farmers are not getting higher and higher and more and more confused, and today's dealers are not getting more and more sophisticated but more and more rational. Therefore, how a company achieves a win-win situation with its distributors and how to guide end users to make reasonable choices may become one of the important factors for grasping the market later.